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JUNE KEY FIGURES

		% change Mar qtr 04 to Jun qtr 04	% change Jun qtr 03 to Jun qtr 04
GDP (Chain volume measure)
	Trend	0.6	3.7
	Seasonally adjusted	0.6	4.1
Final consumption expenditure (Chain volume measure)
	Trend	1.2	5.5
	Seasonally adjusted	1.3	5.6
Gross fixed capital formation (Chain volume measure)
	Trend	1.3	7.3
	Seasonally adjusted	2.9	8.3
GDP chain price index
	Original	1.0	4.5
Terms of trade
	Seasonally adjusted	2.1	11.2
Real net national disposable income
	Trend	1.5	6.7
	Seasonally adjusted	1.2	7.0

GDP - Trend, Chain Volume Measure, qtly change

Contributions to GDP growth, Expenditure - Seasonally adjusted

JUNE KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

• In volume terms GDP increased by 0.6% in the June quarter. GDP per capita grew by 0.3%, GDP per hour worked in the market sector grew by 0.4% and real net national disposable income grew by 1.5%.

• In volume terms GDP increased by 0.6% in the June quarter. Non-farm GDP grew 0.9% while farm GDP fell 7.3%. Continued strong growth in the terms of trade is being reflected in strong growth in real net national disposable income of 1.2% in the June quarter and 7.0% since June quarter 2003.
• On the expenditure side the increase in GDP was driven by growth in household final consumption expenditure (+0.6 percentage points) and private gross fixed capital formation on machinery and equipment (+0.5 percentage points). These were offset by a negative contribution from changes in inventories (-1.0 percentage points).
• On the production side there were small positive contributions from a number of industries, with two industries (agriculture, forestry and fishing and wholesale trade) detracting from GDP growth.

In addition to the normal quarterly revisions (due to the incorporation of more up-to-date source data) there are a number of other factors influencing the estimates released in the June quarter that have led to revisions to both the level and the movement of GDP and its components. First, a new base year, 2002-03, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which has resulted in revisions to growth rates in subsequent periods. Next, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2002-03 thus preserving additivity in the quarters after the reference year. Re-referencing affects the levels of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.

Finally, a number of components of GDP have been seasonally reanalysed leading to revisions going back around six years in those series. The series that have been reanalysed are household consumption on food, cigarettes and tobacco, motor vehicle purchases, and electricity, gas and other fuels; most components of private and public gross fixed capital formation; and private non-financial corporations gross operating surplus. The impact on seasonally adjusted chain volume growth in GDP from these reanalyses has been negligible.

CHANGES IN THE NEXT ISSUE

The September quarter 2004 release of this publication will contain revisions to many series as a result of benchmarking quarterly series to updated annual benchmarks from the annual supply and use tables for 2000-01, 2001-02 and 2002-03. These updated benchmarks will be first published in annual terms in the Australian System of National Accounts (cat. no. 5204.0) to be released on 10 November, 2004. Revisions will also result from the annual seasonal reanalysis that is undertaken on all series.

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS QUARTERLY PRESENTATIONS

The National Accounts Branch runs a series of presentations in each ABS state and territory office following the release of the quarterly national accounts. The presentations cover movements in GDP and its components and specific state detail.

For more information, including contact details, please refer to the National Accounts theme page on the ABS web site <https://www.abs.gov.au>.

INQUIRIES

For further information contact Michael Anderson on Canberra (02) 6252 6713 for income & consumption estimates, and Patricia Mahony on Canberra (02) 6252 6711 for investment, trade & industry estimates.