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Census of Population and Housing
8 Three Census items are used to obtain living arrangement propensities. These are household composition, family composition, and relationship in household of the usual resident population.
9 The Census only collects information on the relationship of each household member to person 1 and/or person 2 on the Census form. Relationships between other members of the household (e.g. between person 3 and person 4) are not captured. This may lead to an underestimation of the number of families, as well as relationships within the household and family type.
10 Person-level ‘relationship in household’ data within the Census is based on place of enumeration. This means persons temporarily absent from the household were excluded from the propensities due to limited relationship information. Visitors to households on Census night were also excluded from the propensities because they are not included in family coding in the Census.
Estimated Resident Population
11 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) published in Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) is used as the 2016 and 2017 population base (projected population is used for later years).
12 ERP is based on Census counts of usual residents, with adjustments made for Census undercount (people present in Australia on Census night but missed by the Census count) and usual residents of Australia who were temporarily overseas at the time of the Census.
13 ERP does not distinguish between people who live in private versus non-private dwellings (NPDs). Household and family projections are concerned exclusively with the population usually resident in private dwellings. Therefore, for the purposes of these projections, the proportion of the Census count in NPDs was identified and excluded from the calculation of numbers of households and families. People living in NPDs are included in the analysis of living arrangements.
14 Estimated households are used to constrain the base year (2016) living arrangement propensities calculated from the 2016 Census. For details see Technical Note - 'Method'.
15 The 2016 estimated households in Australia in this publication (9,204,635) is greater than the 2016 Census count of households (8,286,077) published in various 2016 Census publications. The difference is a combination of dwelling undercount and dwelling misclassification in the Census and persons that were temporarily overseas on Census night. For the differences between Census counts and ERP see Explanatory Notes 11 to 13.
16 Projected number of persons reflect the Series B population projections published in Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 (cat. no. 3222.0)
17 Series B assumes ‘medium’ levels of future births, deaths and migration, based recent historical trends:
18 Only one population projection series is used. This means that the differences between the three series of household, family and living arrangement projections only reflect the different living arrangement assumptions, rather than differences in the underlying population.
19 Chapter 9 – ‘What If . . .’ discusses the results of using two other projections of the population, the Series A and Series C projections from Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 (cat. no. 3222.0), as the assumptions about the future population of Australia and the states and territories.
21 Usually, in this publication, figures of less than one million are rounded in the text to the nearest hundred while figures of more than one million are rounded to the nearest hundred thousand.
22 Changes in population over time are commonly discussed in terms of average annual growth rates. In this publication, however, changes are for the most part presented as percentage increases or decreases over the entire 25-year period (from 2016 to 2041), in order to make differences between projected numbers (of households, families and people in different living arrangements) more discernible.
COMPARISON WITH STATE GOVERNMENT HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS
23 Some state and territory governments produce household projections, which may be a useful complement to the projections in this publication. These are typically based on different methods and are produced with specific attention to the observed and expected trends of that state, without the requirement of being constrained to Australia level data.
24 ABS publications draw extensively on information provided freely by individuals, businesses, governments and other organisations. Their continued cooperation is very much appreciated; without it, the wide range of statistics published by the ABS would not be available. Information received by the ABS is treated in strict confidence as required by the Census and Statistics Act 1905.
ADDITIONAL STATISTICS AVAILABLE
25 As well as the statistics included in this and related publications, the ABS may have other relevant data available on request. Inquiries should be made to the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070.
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