CHAPTER 3 INDICATIVE IMPACTS ON NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
| Warning: The estimates in this publication are indicative. They are presented to give an indication of the magnitude of the impacts of proposed change to Australia's macro-economic accounts. All estimates are subject to refinement and revision in the compilation of the annual Australian System of National Accounts to be published on 8 December 2009 and in the quarterly Australian National Accounts to be published on 16 December 2009. |
INTRODUCTION
From the 2008-09 issue of the Australian System of National Accounts (ASNA), data will be presented in accordance with the following revised standards:
- System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA08);
- Balance of Payments and International Investment Position sixth edition (BPM6);
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Industry Classification 2006 (ANZSIC06); and,
- Standard of Economic Sector Classifications of Australia 2008 (SESCA08) basis.
The changes being implemented with these new standards will impact on the value of some key aggregates. In addition, data quality improvements will result in a shift in the level of some series. To maintain the integrity of time series, level shifts will be back cast.
KEY AGGREGATES IN CURRENT PRICES
It is expected that implementing these changes and the incorporation of revisions in the Australian System of National Accounts (table 1) will increase the level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by about $50,000 million (4.4%) and will increase industry output, as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA), by about $52,000 million (5.0%) in 2007-08.
1 Changes to Key Aggregates, current prices |
|
 | 1994-95 | 1995-96 | 1996-97 | 1997-98 | 1998-99 | 1999-2000 | 2000-01 | 2001-02 | 2002-03 | 2003-04 | 2004-05 | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 |
| Key Aggregates | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m |
|
| GDP (SNA93) | 486 607 | 518 144 | 545 698 | 577 373 | 607 759 | 645 058 | 689 262 | 735 714 | 781 675 | 841 351 | 897 642 | 967 454 | 1 045 674 | 1 132 172 |
| GDP (SNA08) | 499 785 | 532 025 | 559 260 | 591 514 | 622 695 | 663 867 | 708 889 | 759 204 | 804 361 | 864 955 | 925 864 | 1 000 787 | 1 091 327 | 1 181 750 |
| GVA (SNA93) | 445 923 | 474 908 | 500 550 | 530 293 | 558 399 | 592 632 | 628 123 | 671 804 | 711 050 | 766 151 | 821 859 | 887 959 | 962 501 | 1 039 829 |
| GVA (SNA08) | 459 101 | 488 790 | 514 113 | 544 435 | 573 351 | 611 573 | 647 900 | 695 345 | 733 855 | 790 091 | 850 525 | 921 810 | 1 007 187 | 1 091 716 |
|
For full descriptions of GDP and GVA see
Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods (cat. no. 5216.0).
The main contributors will be the capitalisation of research and development (R&D), and revised estimates of finance and insurance services output which are discussed later in this chapter.
Figure 1 - GDP, current prices
Figure 2 - GVA, current prices
INCOME AT CURRENT PRICES
Table 2 shows the revisions result from a variety of factors, including:
- General government consumption of fixed capital ($4,460 million in 2005-06) from the capitalisation of R&D and defence weapons platforms (DWP). These inclusions will have general government owning two additional assets that lead to consequent increases in consumption of fixed capital;
- capitalisation of private and public trading enterprise R&D and orchard growth ($10,456 million in 2005-06) will lead to additional gross operating surplus (GOS) as additional output is produced with no change to intermediate consumption. General government output is measured at cost and therefore increased COFC results in an increase in measured output and GVA; and
- compensation of employees (CoE) has been revised as level estimates from the Annual Integrated Collection (AIC) have been incorporated for reference year 2006/07. The resulting level shift has been backcast through the ASNA time series. This level shift has impacts across most industries.
2 Revisions to Income, current prices |
|
| | 1994-95 | 1995-96 | 1996-97 | 1997-98 | 1998-99 | 1999-2000 | 2000-01 | 2001-02 | 2002-03 | 2003-04 | 2004-05 | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 |
| Income | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m |
|
| GDP (SNA93) | 486 607 | 518 144 | 545 698 | 577 373 | 607 759 | 645 058 | 689 262 | 735 714 | 781 675 | 841 351 | 897 642 | 967 454 | 1 045 674 | 1 132 172 |
| Revisions | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Compensation of Employees | 8 596 | 9 373 | 10 424 | 11 466 | 12 413 | 13 299 | 14 265 | 15 038 | 16 464 | 18 014 | 19 965 | 22 642 | 32 725 | 36 389 |
| Gross Operating Surplus (incl. GMI) | 4 584 | 4 506 | 3 135 | 2 673 | 2 477 | 5 578 | 5 467 | 8 464 | 6 421 | 5 978 | 8 848 | 11 479 | 11 810 | 12 271 |
| Net Taxes on Production | -1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 45 | -68 | -99 | -19 | -205 | -385 | -588 | -786 | 1 118 | 420 |
| GDP (SNA08) | 499 785 | 532 025 | 559 260 | 591 514 | 622 695 | 663 867 | 708 889 | 759 204 | 804 361 | 864 955 | 925 864 | 1 000 787 | 1 091 327 | 1 181 750 |
|
EXPENDITURE AT CURRENT PRICES
Table 3 shows these revisions for 2005-06:
- Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) will fall as R&D and DWP are capitalised (-$6,117 million) and will increase due to the additional consumption of fixed capital (COFC) ($4,460 million) with -$234 million for other revisions; and,
- three sectors will increase gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) to account for the capitalisation of R&D ($9,669 million in private, $251 million in public trading enterprises (PTE) and $2,921 million in general government), DWP ($3,196 million in general government) and orchard growth ($536 million in private). The remaining revisions will increase GFCF by $2,018 million.
Other revisions will include:
- following the use of improved source data and methods, there were significant revisions to estimates for insurance service charge (ISC) and FISIM consumed by Households. The ISC revisions amounted to about $12,500 million in 2006-07 and about $15,000 million in 2007-08; the FISIM revisions amounted to about $8,200 million and about $7,300 million in 2007-08;
- there will be product detail changes to household final consumption expenditure. Examples include revisions to air passenger transport services based on changes to other government transport data and take away food which will use an improved estimate of price change; and
- changes to the treatment of exports and imports will lead to a $834 million reduction in net exports.
3 Revisions to expenditure at current prices |
|
| | 1994-95 | 1995-96 | 1996-97 | 1997-98 | 1998-99 | 1999-2000 | 2000-01 | 2001-02 | 2002-03 | 2003-04 | 2004-05 | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 |
| Expenditure | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m |
|
| GDP (SNA93) | 486 607 | 518 144 | 545 698 | 577 373 | 607 759 | 645 058 | 689 262 | 735 714 | 781 675 | 841 351 | 897 642 | 967 454 | 1 045 674 | 1 132 172 |
| Revisions | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| GFCE | -1 161 | -1 253 | -1 538 | -1 272 | -1 270 | -547 | -984 | -437 | -890 | -1 112 | -1 608 | -1 498 | -246 | 1 242 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| GFCF - Private | 4 298 | 5 168 | 5 093 | 5 063 | 5 221 | 5 403 | 6 133 | 7 309 | 8 514 | 9 446 | 10 334 | 11 441 | 13 806 | 14 425 |
| GFCF - Public Trading Enterprises | 191 | 131 | 63 | 131 | 176 | 66 | 168 | 358 | 251 | 158 | 213 | 508 | 225 | 318 |
| GFCF - General Government | 3 325 | 3 560 | 3 682 | 3 870 | 4 407 | 4 540 | 5 123 | 4 997 | 5 231 | 4 848 | 5 970 | 6 643 | 5 611 | 8 459 |
| GFCF Total | 7 814 | 8 859 | 8 838 | 9 064 | 9 804 | 10 009 | 11 424 | 12 664 | 13 996 | 14 452 | 16 517 | 18 592 | 19 642 | 23 202 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Other revisions | 6 525 | 6 275 | 6 262 | 6 349 | 6 402 | 9 347 | 9 187 | 11 263 | 9 580 | 10 264 | 13 313 | 16 239 | 26 257 | 25 134 |
| GDP (SNA08) | 499 785 | 532 025 | 559 260 | 591 514 | 622 695 | 663 867 | 708 889 | 759 204 | 804 361 | 864 955 | 925 864 | 1 000 787 | 1 091 327 | 1 181 750 |
|
COMPONENTS OF REVISIONS TO GVA AT CURRENT PRICES
Table 4 shows the components of expected revisions to GVA. For example in 2007-08, the key components of change will be from these revisions (table 4):
- capitalisation of R&D which will increase the level of GVA by about 1.6%;
- introduction of DWP or systems as capital in the accounts and associated COFC of these assets which will increase the level of GVA by about 0.2%; and,
- introduction of orchard growth which will increase the level of GVA by about 0.1%.
4 Revisions to GVA, key components - current prices |
|
| | | 1994-95 | 1995-96 | 1996-97 | 1997-98 | 1998-99 | 1999-2000 | 2000-01 | 2001-02 | 2002-03 | 2003-04 | 2004-05 | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 |
| | | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m |
|
| GVA (SNA93) | 445 923 | 474 908 | 500 550 | 530 293 | 558 399 | 592 632 | 628 123 | 671 804 | 711 050 | 766 151 | 821 859 | 887 959 | 962 501 | 1 039 829 |
| Revisions | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Orchard growth | 300 | 380 | 457 | 497 | 561 | 623 | 592 | 563 | 551 | 509 | 532 | 536 | 681 | 638 |
| | R&D GFCF | 5 433 | 6 252 | 6 049 | 6 107 | 6 188 | 6 324 | 7 237 | 8 576 | 9 393 | 10 335 | 11 267 | 12 841 | 14 456 | 16 404 |
| | DWP COFC | 1 225 | 1 229 | 1 143 | 1 266 | 1 407 | 1 512 | 1 795 | 1 977 | 1 876 | 1 605 | 1 610 | 1 726 | 1 784 | 1 649 |
| | other revisions | 7 302 | 7 313 | 7 197 | 7 734 | 8 118 | 11 567 | 11 596 | 13 778 | 12 462 | 13 239 | 17 123 | 20 770 | 32 096 | 41 249 |
| GVA (SNA08) | 460 183 | 490 082 | 515 396 | 545 897 | 574 673 | 612 658 | 649 343 | 696 698 | 735 332 | 791 839 | 852 391 | 923 832 | 1 011 518 | 1 099 769 |
|
A number of other revisions in industry components were implemented including revised estimates for the finance and insurance industry from the use of improved data sources and methodology. These amounted to about $40,000 million in 2006-07 and $52,000 million in 2007-08 but were offset by decreases in a number of other industries;
REVISIONS TO VOLUME MOVEMENTS
At the time of preparation of this paper it was not possible to compile revised GVA growth rates in chain volume terms that reflect the changes in standards and other revisions. However, given the substantial revisions to GVA levels in current prices and changed patterns of growth in current prices, an indicator of the likely change in growth rates in volume terms has been compiled. This indicator is the growth of GVA in previous year's prices.
This proxy measure from revisions to standards will show an increase of about 0.2 percentage points of the growth rate of GVA in 2005-06. Table 5 and figure 3 shows volume movements in other years show minimal movements.
5 Impacts on GVA growth rates, volume measures |
|
| 1995-96 | 1996-97 | 1997-98 | 1998-99 | 1999-2000 | 2000-01 | 2001-02 | 2002-03 | 2003-04 | 2004-05 | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 |
| GROSS VALUE ADDED | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
|
| GVA SNA93 (percentage change from previous year) | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | n.y.a | n.y.a |
| GVA SNA08 (percentage change from previous year) | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 3.2 | n.y.a | n.y.a |
| Revision | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | - | 0.2 | n.y.a | n.y.a |
|
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
| Source: n.y.a - not yet available |
Figure 3 - GVA growth rates, SNA93 and SNA08 basis
- volume measures
Revisions to volume movements in GDP will result from the following revisions (table 6):
- removal of general government DWP and R&D will be moved from GFCE to GFCF;
- addition of DWP, R&D and orchard growth to GFCF;
- addition of general government COFC for DWP and R&D to GFCE;
- addition of orchard growth to GFCF; and
- output estimates of finance and insurance (ANZSIC06 Division K), education and training (ANZSIC06 Division P) and health care and social assistance (ANZSIC06 Division Q) will replace existing estimates for 2006-07 and 2007-08.
6 Components of and revisions to GDP (Expenditure), volume measures |
|
| | 1995-96 | 1996-97 | 1997-98 | 1998-99 | 1999-2000 | 2000-01 | 2001-02 | 2002-03 | 2003-04 | 2004-05 | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 |
| SNA08 & Revision groupings | % points | % points | % points | % points | % points | % points | % points | % points | % points | % points | % points | % points | % points |
|
| SNA93(a) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| HFCE | 3.6 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| GFCE | 4.2 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.4 |
| GFCF - Private | 3.9 | 10.3 | 13.6 | 1.7 | 10.2 | -11.1 | 9.8 | 16.3 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 10.5 |
| GFCF - PTE | -5.8 | -15.7 | -15.4 | 45.1 | -22.3 | -4.7 | 14.0 | 6.5 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 18.7 | 1.0 | 6.3 |
| GFCF - General Government | -1.7 | 8.8 | -2.4 | 4.9 | 17.4 | 1.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 |
| Exports | 10.0 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 8.6 | 7.6 | -1.0 | -0.5 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Imports | 3.9 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 12.4 | -1.0 | 1.5 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 12.9 |
| GDP | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
| SNA08(b) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| HFCE | 3.6 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| GFCE | 4.2 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| GFCF - Private | 4.6 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 1.6 | 9.8 | -10.5 | 10.1 | 16.0 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 10.7 |
| GFCF - PTE | -6.2 | -16.1 | -15.0 | 45.4 | -22.8 | -3.7 | 15.0 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 6.3 |
| GFCF - General Government | - | 7.8 | -1.8 | 6.2 | 13.8 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| Exports | 10.3 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | -0.7 | -0.5 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| Imports | 4.0 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 12.1 | -1.2 | 1.4 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 14.1 |
| GDP | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| Revision(c) | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| HFCE | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.1 | - | 0.1 | - | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| GFCE | - | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.2 | - | -0.4 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.6 | - | 0.7 | -0.2 |
| GFCF - Private | 0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.1 | - | - | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| GFCF - PTE | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.2 | - |
| GFCF - General Government | 1.7 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | -3.6 | 2.8 | -2.8 | 1.0 | -1.9 | 3.3 | -0.2 | -4.6 | 2.5 |
| Exports | 0.3 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.3 | - | -1.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| Imports | 0.1 | 0.1 | - | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | - | 1.2 |
| GDP | 0.1 | - | -0.1 | - | - | 0.1 | - | - | 0.1 | - | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
|
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
| (a) Growth rates previously published |
| (b) Expected revised growth rates |
| (c) Revisions to published growth rates |
IMPACT ON GDP PER CAPITA
The changes from international standards and other revisions will increase the level of GDP per capita by about $2,300 (4.4%) in 2007-08 (table 7). There will be minimal changes to the growth of GDP per capita over time.
7 Impact on GDP per capita, current prices |
|
| 1994-95 | 1995-96 | 1996-97 | 1997-98 | 1998-99 | 1999-2000 | 2000-01 | 2001-02 | 2002-03 | 2003-04 | 2004-05 | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 |
| GDP per capita | $ | $ | $ | $ | $ | $ | $ | $ | $ | $ | $ | $ | $ | $ |
|
| SNA 93 | 27 111.0 | 28 480 | 29 630 | 31 031 | 32 308 | 33 887 | 35 769 | 37 677 | 39 574 | 42 097 | 44 380 | 47 152 | 50 220 | 53 523 |
| SNA 08 | 27 845 | 29 243 | 30 366 | 31 791 | 33 102 | 34 875 | 36 788 | 38 880 | 40 723 | 43 278 | 45 775 | 48 777 | 52 413 | 55 867 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| Growth 93 | n.a | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Growth 08 | n.a | 5.0 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 6.6 |
|
Figure 4 - GDP per capita, current prices
IMPACTS ON INDUSTRY ESTIMATES
The next two tables show that there will be changes to the structure of ANZSIC GVA estimates from the changes in ANZSIC06. These numbers are indicative of the changes, contain revisions due to SNA08 and SESCA08 and are not presented as a concordance between the two industry classifications. For more information on the changes from ANZSIC06 see chapter 2.
8 ANZSIC93 Industry Gross Value Added, current prices ($m) - 2005-06 |
|
| ANZSIC93 Industry Value Added | 2005-06 |
|
| (A) | Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing | 27 457 |
| (B) | Mining | 64 928 |
| (C) | Manufacturing | 99 172 |
| (D) | Electricity, Gas and Water Supply | 22 082 |
| (E) | Construction | 62 474 |
| (F) | Wholesale Trade | 45 073 |
| (G) | Retail Trade | 54 728 |
| (H) | Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants | 20 092 |
| (I) | Transport and Storage | 43 632 |
| (J) | Communication Services | 23 453 |
| (K) | Finance and Insurance | 69 182 |
| (L) | Property and Business Services | 112 705 |
| (M) | Government Administration and Defence | 37 822 |
| (N) | Education | 41 138 |
| (O) | Health and Community Services | 56 868 |
| (P) | Cultural and Recreation Services | 14 091 |
| (Q) | Personal and Other Services | 17 713 |
| ( ) | Ownership of Dwellings | 75 349 |
|
9 ANZSIC06 Industry Gross Value Added, current prices ($m) - 2005-06 |
|
| ANZSIC06 Industry Value Added | 2005-06 |
|
| (A) | Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing | 27 241 |
| (B) | Mining | 66 384 |
| (C) | Manufacturing | 99 822 |
| (D) | Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services | 22 769 |
| (E) | Construction | 66 836 |
| (F) | Wholesale Trade | 44 945 |
| (G) | Retail Trade | 43 522 |
| (H) | Accommodation and Food Services | 23 781 |
| (I) | Transport, Postal and Warehousing | 48 073 |
| (J) | Information, Media and Telecommunications | 32 328 |
| (K) | Financial and Insurance Services | 91 857 |
| (L) | Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services | 28 830 |
| (M) | Professional, Scientific and Technical Services | 55 708 |
| (N) | Administrative and Support Services | 25 041 |
| (O) | Public Administration and Safety | 51 938 |
| (P) | Education and Training | 42 896 |
| (Q) | Health Care and Social Services | 55 572 |
| (R) | Arts and Recreation Services | 8 641 |
| (S) | Other Services | 19 095 |
| ( ) | Ownership of Dwellings | 66 531 |
|
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