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10 Because of administrative complexities and measurement difficulties, Norfolk Island transactions with the rest of the world will not always be captured in all relevant Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics. Most of the transactions involving Norfolk Island are not material to Australia's trade performance and not capturing these transactions will not distort these statistics. However, any significant transactions will be identified and included in the relevant statistics.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES
11 Quarterly original estimates are volatile, being subject to calendar-related and large irregular influences. Seasonally adjusted estimates are derived by estimating and removing from the original series systematic calendar related effects, such as seasonal (e.g. Christmas), trading day and moving holiday (e.g. Easter) influences. Seasonal adjustment does not aim to remove the irregular or non-seasonal influences which may be present in any particular quarter. These irregular influences may reflect both random economic events and difficulties of statistical recording. Though efforts are made to align monthly and quarterly data, monthly seasonally adjusted estimates released in International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia (cat. no. 5368.0) may not align with the quarterly estimates released in this publication due to different compilation procedures necessary for monthly and quarterly data.
12 The seasonally adjusted statistics in this publication use the concurrent seasonal adjustment technique and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling to estimate factors for the current and previous quarters. Under concurrent seasonal adjustment, the estimates of seasonal factors are fine tuned as new or revised original estimates become available each period. The seasonally adjusted estimates are subject to revisions at each reference quarter as the estimates of seasonal factors are improved.
13 ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. ARIMA modelling is used on a case-by-case basis where it results in reduced revisions to seasonally adjusted series when subsequent data become available. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process. The ARIMA model is assessed as part of the annual review and, following the 2009 annual review, 42 of the 47 directly seasonally adjusted time series for trade in goods and services use an ARIMA model.
14 Trend estimates are published as the quarter-to-quarter movements of the seasonally adjusted estimates may not be reliable indicators of underlying behaviour because they include irregular or non-seasonal movements. Trend estimates reduce the effect of these movements as they are derived by applying a 7-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted series. The 7-term Henderson moving average (like all Henderson averages) is symmetric, but as the end of a time series is approached, asymmetric forms of the average are applied. While the asymmetric weights enable trend estimates for recent quarters to be produced, it does result in revisions to the estimates for the most recent three quarters as additional observations become available. Revisions to trend estimates can also occur because of revisions to the original data and as a result of the re-estimation of the seasonal factors. Trend estimates should be used with caution, especially around the time of unusual influences, until these have been appropriately taken into account. Please take note of the footnotes in tables that include trend estimates.
15 Information papers and articles on time series methods are available on the ABS web site:
VOLUME AND PRICE ESTIMATES
16 The Analysis and Comments section of this publication contains references to volume and price movements of data. Volume data are in terms of chain volume estimates (see paragraph 17) and price data are in terms of implicit price deflators (see paragraph 19).
CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES
17 To enable analysis of the movement of goods and services in ‘real’ terms, estimates of chain volume measures are compiled and published each quarter. Chain volume measures are derived by deflating the original current price series by specially compiled measures of price change. The reference year for chain volume measures is the year prior to the latest complete financial year. The reference year is updated with the release of each September quarter issue of this publication. Prior to the reference year chain volume measures are non-additive, in that the component chain volume measures of an aggregate will not add through to the chain volume measure of the total aggregate. For more information on chain volume measures refer to Information Paper: Australian National Accounts, Introduction of Chain Volume and Price Indexes (cat. no. 5248.0).
18 This publication and the International Trade Price Indexes (ITPI) (cat. no. 6457.0) provide detailed Australian export and import price information for analysts. The ITPI measures changes in the prices of goods imported into Australia (the Import Price Index (IPI)) and goods exported from Australia (the Export Price Index (EPI)). Differences can occur between ITPI measurements and BoP measurements due to coverage, scope, timing adjustments and weighting patterns.
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR (IPD)
19 The quarterly implicit price deflators (IPDs) are derived by dividing current price estimates by the corresponding chain volume measures. Movements in IPDs can be greatly affected by changes in the physical composition of the aggregates and their components. The quarterly IPDs derived from seasonally adjusted data are preferred to those using original data because the seasonal adjustment process removes some of the seasonal changes in the composition of this series. However, the seasonal adjustment process itself is also a possible source of distortion.
TERMS OF TRADE
20 Quarterly estimates of the terms of trade shown in table 6 of this publication are derived from seasonally adjusted data. The Terms of Trade index is a ratio, that measures the relative prices of a country's credits to debits. The ABS calculates the Terms of Trade index using the following formula:
TRADE WEIGHTED INDEX (TWI)
21 The TWI is an indicator of movements in the average value of the Australian dollar. The TWI is calculated by the Reserve Bank of Australia as a geometric average of a basket of currencies that are representative of Australia's trading patterns. The currencies included in the calculation of the TWI make up at least 90% of total merchandise trade with Australia.
CHAIN LASPEYRES PRICE INDEXES
22 The chain Laspeyres price indexes are derived by combining individual component prices with weights which reflect the average relative importance of the components in the previous year. These are then indexed to the relevant reference year. For all periods since the latest reference year, reference year weights are used.
OPENING POSITION FOR NEW SERIES
23 The introduction of BPM6 has resulted in a number of new international investment series in tables 26 and 27. Where possible, historical series have been created. In a small number of cases this was not feasible. For 'other equity' the opening position for September quarter 2009 is shown as zero and reconciliation between the opening position of zero and the reported closing position is via an 'other adjustment'. Similarly for 'between fellow enterprises'. September quarter 2009 opening positions for 'director investor claims on direct investment enterprises' and 'direct investment enterprises claims on direct investors (reverse investment)' include positions between fellow enterprises. Reconciliation between these opening positions, which include fellow enterprises, and closing positions, which do not include fellow enterprises, is via 'other adjustments'.
24 In table 32 ‘currency’ refers to the currency in which assets or liabilities are likely to be repaid, while ‘residual maturity’ refers to the time remaining until an asset or liability is due to be fully repaid. Reserve assets are not allocated by currency. All reserve assets are allocated to the repayment category ‘less than or equal to 90 days’ although a range of maturities may be involved.
25 The industry categories shown are based on the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC), 2006 (1292.0). Industry statistics should be treated with some caution as they do not necessarily reflect the industry of the end use of the funds. First, the statistical unit (that is, the unit of observation and classification) generally consists of all enterprises in an enterprise group within a single resident institutional sector. The industry of this statistical unit, which may cover a broad range of activities, is determined on the basis of the predominant activity of the unit as a whole which may be quite different from the industry in which funds are used. Second, financial enterprises such as trading and merchant banks, may borrow funds as principals and then on-lend to clients in other industries.
COMMODITY BREAKDOWNS OF GENERAL MERCHANDISE
26 Commodity breakdowns of general merchandise credits are provided in tables; 7 (at current prices), 9 (at current prices, seasonally adjusted), 11 (chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted) and 13 (implicit price deflators, seasonally adjusted). The groupings shown are based on the United Nations' Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 4 (SITC Rev 4).
27 Commodity breakdowns of general merchandise debits are provided in tables; 8 (at current prices), 10 (at current prices, seasonally adjusted), 12 (chain volume measures, seasonally adjusted) and 14 (implicit price deflators, seasonally adjusted). The three broad end-use categories - Consumption goods, Capital goods and Intermediate and other merchandise goods - are based on United Nations’ Classification of Broad Economic Categories (BEC). These broad end-use categories are further divided into a total of 25 SITC based commodity groupings.
28 For more information on the commodity classification of general merchandise debits and a detailed concordance between balance of payments general merchandise debits end-use categories, commodity groups, BEC and SITC Rev 4, refer to Information Paper: Impact of introducing Revision 4 of the Standard International Trade Classification, 2008 (cat. no. 5368.0.55.010).
TOURISM RELATED SERVICES
29 The tourism related services memorandum items provide timely indicators of the movements in tourism related activities, not an absolute measure of the level of these activities. The tourism related indicator has been derived by combining total travel services (business, education-related and other personal travel) and passenger transportation services (which includes agency fees and commissions for air transport).
30 Discrepancies may occur between totals in this publication and the same aggregates from other sources, and between sums of component items and totals due to rounding.
RELATED PRODUCTS AND PUBLICATIONS
31 Users may also wish to refer to the following publications which can be downloaded free of charge from the ABS web site:
32 Current publications and other products released by the ABS are available from the Statistics tab on the ABS web site. The ABS also issues a daily Release Advice on the web site which details products to be released in the week ahead. Theme pages are available on the ABS web site. Select Themes - Economy - Balance of Payments or Foreign Investment and Foreign Debt. These pages provide direct links to all balance of payments, foreign investment and foreign debt related data and publications, recent changes and forthcoming events, links to relevant web sites and a range of other information about the Australian International Accounts.
33 Estimates for periods prior to those shown in this publication are available from Time Series Spreadsheets. Detailed data on exports and imports of goods, including dissections by commodity and country of origin, are also available from Time Series Spreadsheets on a recorded trade basis (see tables 12 to 15 and 31 to 37 of 5368.0 or tables released with 5439.0). If more detailed data is required it can be obtained by contacting the Client Service telephone number shown on the back of this publication. There may be a charge for this information, depending on the volume of data requested.
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