EXPECTED REVISIONS TO AUSTRALIAN SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 2010-11
This information paper describes changes being introduced in the 2010-11 issue of Australian System of National Accounts (ASNA) (cat. no. 5204.0) to be released on Friday 28th October 2011.
The 2010-11 ASNA incorporates a full historical revision cycle, where annual benchmarks are revised through the entire time series. The 2010-11 ASNA incorporates updated input data from various sources including household surveys, retail commodity collections and the annual industry collections. This ASNA also incorporates a range of improvements to compilation methods which have generally improved the quality of data and the accuracy of industry allocations.
Significant revisions are expected through the annual time series in the ASNA. The following key revisions to the 2010-11 issue of ASNA are expected:
- Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) (table 42) will be revised due to the introduction of new source data. There are several sources of benchmark data for the HFCE estimates. One of the main sources is retail data from Retail and Wholesale Industries, Australia: Commodities (RIS) (cat. no. 8624.0) which is conducted about every seven years. RIS is an important source of commodity data and the latest RIS for the 2005-06 reference year will be incorporated. Another key data source is the Household Expenditure Survey, Australia (HES) (cat. no. 6530.0), which provides benchmark estimates for components such as 'Electricity, gas and other fuels', 'Transport', 'Communications', 'Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants', and 'Other goods and services'. Benchmark estimates from the 2003-04 and 2009-10 HES will be incorporated. Details regarding this are available in Chapter 14: Final consumption expenditure of the Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods (cat. no. 5216.0).
- ASNA Industry estimates of Industry Value Added and Gross Operating Surplus will be revised for most industries as a result of updated input data and a range of improvements to compilation methods:
- ASNA Industry estimates will be revised for most industries as a result of revisions to source data in Australian Industry, 2009-10 (AIC) (cat. no. 8155.0);
- ASNA Industry estimates for most industries, will be revised as a result of Off-June Adjustments using movements in the Business Indicators, Australia (QBIS) (cat. no. 5676.0). Previously, data sourced from AIC were based on data as reported, whether respondents had reported on fiscal year or calendar year basis. From 2011 onwards, National Accounts will apply an Off-June Reporting Adjustment to all industries based on matching respondents to those who have indicated as reporting for a non-June year with data in QBIS, deriving factors and applying adjustments;
- Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry data (table 5 and table 50) will be revised due to correction of a backcasting issue in 'Total Intermediate Use' (TIU) during 2009 compilation;
- Arts and Recreation Industry data (table 5) will be revised as a the result of improving compilation based on both non-market and market derivations. This change in methodology will only affect the manner in which supply is calculated, the TIU calculation would remain constant;
- Retail and Wholesale Industries (table 5), will be revised due to a combination of revised AIC data, including Off-June Year basis data and a correction of a compilation issue;
- Ownership of Dwellings industry and 'Income from Dwelling Rent' (table 5 and 49), will be revised as a result of updating the intermediate use allocation to reflect HES 2003-04 and 2009-10 data. The allocation of taxes on production and HFCE of actual rents have also been revised to reflect the latest Survey of Income and Housing and HES data;
- Finance and Insurance industry and Financial Corporations Sector estimates, will be revised as a result of improved methods of data compilation and the use of new source data for compilation and validation purposes. Revisions are expected in Finance and Insurance industry 'Gross Value Added', Financial Corporation 'Gross Operating Surplus', HFCE of Insurance and other financial services, and components of the primary and secondary income receivable and payable in the sectoral income accounts; and
- Taxes and Subsidies on Production industry allocation will be revised as a result of improved methodology.
- Compensation of Employees (COE) (table 46 and 48) will be revised for most industries as a result of updated input data and a range of improvements to compilation methods:
- COE will be revised for most industries as a result of revisions to source data in Australian Industry, 2009-10 (AIC) (cat. no. 8155.0);
- COE will be revised as a result of Off-June Adjustments using movements in the Business Indicators, Australia (QBIS) (cat. no. 5676.0);
- COE industry allocation will be revised from using the General Government ANZSIC 06 industry allocation published in the Survey of Employment, Earnings and Hours (SEEH) (cat. no. 6306.0). Previously, an allocation was used to convert the industry estimates from ANZSIC 93 to ANZSIC 06 as updated SEEH data was not available at the time of the previous historical revision cycle; and
- COE in the Finance and Insurance industry, will be revised as compilation for Financial Auxiliaries will now be sourced from AIC. Compilation was previously based on data from Labour Costs, Australia, 2002-03 (cat. no. 6348.0.55.001), Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority data as well as indicators such as the Labour Force Survey (cat. no. 6202.0) and QBIS.
'Gross Fixed Capital Formation' (GFCF) data (table 64) will be revised due to improved industry allocation as a result of research into data sources and compilation practices, including construction survey activity data from Building Activity, Australia
(cat. no. 8752.0), the latest HES data, and other data sources. The revisions to GFCF will result in revisions to capital stock and consumption of fixed capital.
The updated source data has been confronted in a Supply-Use (SU) framework to ensure the consistency of statistics on the flows of goods and services obtained from a large number of data sources. Since financial year 1994-95, the ABS has compiled a time series of SU tables to generate balanced annual estimates of GDP to replace those generated by summing four quarterly estimates. This results in the 'Statistical Discrepancy' for all years between 1994-95 and 2009-10 inclusive being zero. Periods prior to financial year 1994-95 have a non-zero 'Statistical Discrepancy' as historical SU tables have not been compiled. Similarly, estimates for the latest period (in this case financial year 2010-11) have a 'Statistical Discrepancy' until SU tables for these periods are constructed.
The September quarter 2011 issue of Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product
(cat. no. 5206.0) to be released on 7 December 2011 will also incorporate the full historical revisions of the 2010-11 issue of the ASNA using an 'optimal' benchmarking procedure. For a more detailed discussion on the benchmarking procedure, see Chapter 13: Deriving annual benchmarks and quarterly estimates from supply and use tables
of the Australian System of National Accounts, Concepts Sources and Methods
(cat. no. 5216.0).
For further information about these expected revisions contact Jennifer Humphrys on Canberra (02) 6252 7506. Noting that details quantifying the magnitude of these revisions will not be available until the 2010-11 issue of the ASNA is released on the 28 October 2011.