MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE


CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis is in original terms.

FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (+1.3%)

The main contributors to the rise in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group this quarter are vegetables (+7.7%), takeaway and fast foods (+0.9%), poultry (+2.9%), bread (+1.8%) and fruit (+1.8%). Drought and adverse weather conditions continue to reduce the supply of a selection of fruits and vegetables, and higher input costs are putting upward pressure on prices for other food items such as poultry and bread.

Over the last twelve months, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 2.3%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 1.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is fruit (+6.5%).


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (-1.5%)

The main contributors to the fall in the recreation and culture group this quarter are domestic holiday, travel and accommodation (-3.8%) and international holiday, travel and accommodation (-2.1%). The fall in international holiday, travel and accommodation is due to the winter off-peak seasons in Europe and America.

Over the last twelve months, the recreation and culture group rose 0.9%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group fell 0.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-2.8%).


TRANSPORT GROUP (-1.7%)

The main contributor to the fall in the transport group this quarter is automotive fuel (-8.7%) due to falls in world oil prices flowing through to consumers. Automotive fuel fell in January (-6.1%) and rose in February (+4.2%) and March (+5.2%).

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

Over the last twelve months, the transport group was flat (0.0%). Rises in other services in respect of motor vehicles (+2.6%) and maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (+2.1%) are offset by a fall in automotive fuel (-3.5%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group fell -2.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is automotive fuel (-8.7%).


EDUCATION GROUP (+2.7%)

The main contributors to the rise in the education group this quarter are secondary education (+4.2%) and tertiary education (+1.5%) following the commencement of the new school year.

Over the last twelve months, the education group rose 2.9%. The main contributor to the rise is secondary education (+4.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 0.3% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is secondary education (+0.8%).


HEALTH GROUP (+1.9%)

The main contributors to the rise in the health group this quarter are medical and hospital services (+1.3%) and pharmaceutical products (+5.0%). These rises are a result of the cyclical reduction in the proportion of consumers who qualify for subsidies under the Medicare Benefits Scheme (MBS) and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). The safety net threshold for both the MBS and PBS are reset on 1 January each year.

Over the last twelve months, the health group rose 3.1%. The main contributor to the annual rise is medical and hospital services (+4.1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 0.7% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+1.0%).


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (-1.4%)

The main contributor to the fall in the clothing and footwear group this quarter is garments for women (-2.9%) due to ongoing competition and discounting activity in the retail industry.

Over the last twelve months, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.1%. The main contributor to the fall is garments for women (-2.0%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group rose 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is garments for men (+2.8%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (-0.4%)

The main contributor to the fall in the furnishings, household equipment and services group this quarter is furniture (-2.5%).

Over the last twelve months, the furnishings, household equipment and services group fell 0.8%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 0.3% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is child care (+1.6%).


ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+0.3%)

The main contributor to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group this quarter is beer (+1.1%).

Over the last twelve months, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 6.4%. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+13.8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+1.9%).


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-0.6%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group this quarter is telecommunication equipment and services (-0.6%).

Over the last twelve months, the communication group fell 4.6%.

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


HOUSING GROUP (0.0%)

The housing group was flat this quarter. Rises in maintenance and repair of the dwelling (+0.7%), gas and other household fuels (+0.8%) and rents (+0.1%) are offset by falls in new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (-0.2%) and electricity (-0.6%).

Over the last twelve months, the housing group rose 0.8%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group rose 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is maintenance and repair of the dwelling (+0.7%).


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (-0.2%)

The main contributors to the fall in the insurance and financial services group this quarter are other financial services (-0.2%) and insurance (-0.3%).

Over the last twelve months, the insurance and financial services group rose 1.1%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group fell 0.1% this quarter.


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLE AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradable component of the All groups CPI fell 0.6% in the March quarter 2019. The tradable goods component fell 0.6% due to automotive fuel (-8.7%). The tradable services component fell 2.0% due to international holiday, travel and accommodation (-2.1%).

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.3% in the March quarter 2019. The non-tradable goods component rose 0.4%, due to pharmaceutical products (+5.0%). The non-tradable services component rose 0.3% due to secondary education (+4.2%).

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, the tradables component rose 0.4% and the non-tradables component rose 1.8%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the All groups CPI fell 0.4% and the non-tradables component rose 0.2%.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

In the March quarter 2019 the All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.1%.

The trimmed mean rose 0.3% in the March quarter 2019, following a revised rise of 0.5% in the December quarter 2018. Over the twelve months to the March quarter 2019, the trimmed mean rose 1.6%, following a revised rise of 1.8% over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018.

The weighted median rose 0.1% in the March quarter 2019, following a revised rise of 0.4% in the December quarter 2018. Over the twelve months to the March quarter 2019, the weighted median rose 1.2%, following a revised rise of 1.6% over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018.

		ORIGINAL	SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
		Dec Qtr 2018 to Mar Qtr 2019	Dec Qtr 2018 to Mar Qtr 2019
		%	%
All groups CPI		0.0	0.1
Food and non-alcoholic beverages		1.3	1.2
Alcohol and tobacco		0.3	1.1
Clothing and footwear		-1.4	0.1
Housing		0.0	0.1
Furnishings, household equipment and services		-0.4	0.3
Health		1.9	0.7
Transport		-1.7	-2.2
Communication(a)		-0.6	-0.6
Recreation and culture		-1.5	-0.6
Education		2.7	0.3
Insurance and financial services		-0.2	-0.1
International trade exposure series
	Tradables	-0.6	-0.4
	Non-tradables	0.3	0.2
(a) not seasonally adjusted

A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI and calculation of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.