MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE


CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis is in original terms.

TRANSPORT GROUP (+1.6%)

The main contributor to the rise in the transport group this quarter is automotive fuel (+6.9%) due to increases in world oil prices flowing through to consumers.

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

Over the twelve months, the transport group rose 5.2% due to an increase in fuel.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group rose 1.8% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is automotive fuel (+6.9%).


HEALTH GROUP (+1.9%)

The main contributor to the rise in the health group this quarter is medical and hospital services (+3.1%). The rise is due to the annual increase in private health insurance (PHI) premiums on 1 April, and at the same time, the decrease in the PHI rebate, which increases the out-of-pocket expenses of consumers.

Over the last twelve months, the health group rose 3.4%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 0.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+0.3%).


ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+1.6%)

The main contributor to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group this quarter is tobacco (+2.8%). The rise in tobacco is due to the flow on effects of the federal excise tax increase effective 1 March 2018.

Over the last twelve months, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 7.8%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.8% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+3.8%).


FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (-0.4%)

The main contributors to the fall in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group this quarter are vegetables (-2.9%) and fruit (-2.5%). The fall is due to increased supply of seasonal varieties. For vegetables this includes broccoli, capsicum, cauliflower and zucchini, and for fruit this includes avocados, kiwifruits, bananas, mandarins, oranges, lemons, apples and pears.

Over the last twelve months, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 0.3%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is take away and fast foods (+0.8%).


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (+1.3%)

The main contributor to the rise in the clothing and footwear group this quarter is garments for women (+2.2%) due to discontinued specials.

Over the last twelve months, the clothing and footwear group fell 2.0%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is garments for men (-2.7%).


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (-0.4%)

The main contributor to the fall in the recreation and culture group this quarter is domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-2.7%). The fall in domestic holiday travel and accommodation is typical of the off peak season for domestic holiday travel.

Over the last twelve months, the recreation and culture group rose 0.8%.

In the CPI, airfares and accommodation are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the trip is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (January for travel in March) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (February for travel in March).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group rose 0.5% this quarter. The main contributors to the rise are domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+1.2%) and international holiday travel and accommodation (+1.2%).


HOUSING GROUP (+0.2%)

The main contributor to the rise in the housing group this quarter is new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.8%). The rise in new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers is due to increases in input costs, mainly materials.

Over the last twelve months, the housing group rose 3.1%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group rose 0.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.8%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (+0.3%)

The main contributors to the rise in the furnishings, household equipment and services group this quarter are rises in glassware, tableware and household utensils (+3.5%) and child care (+1.0%). The rise in glassware, tableware and household utensils is due to discontinued specials.

Over the last twelve months, the furnishings, household equipment and services group fell 0.5%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group fell 0.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is furniture (-1.2%) due to ongoing competition and continued discounting activity in the retail industry.


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-1.3%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group this quarter is telecommunication equipment and services (-1.5%). The fall is due to continued growth in mobile data usage.

Over the last twelve months, the communication group fell 4.2%.

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+0.4%)

The main contributor to the rise in the insurance and financial services group this quarter is insurance (+0.9%). The rise in insurance is due to price rises in home contents and motor vehicle insurance.

Over the past twelve months, the insurance and financial services group rose 1.5%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+1.6%).


EDUCATION GROUP (+0.1%)

The main contributor to the rise in the education group this quarter is preschool and primary education (+0.2%).

Over the last twelve months, the education group rose 2.7%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 1.1% this quarter. The main contributors to the rise are secondary education (+ 1.0%) and tertiary education (+1.0%).


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2018. The tradable goods component rose 0.4% mainly due to automotive fuel (+6.9%), audio, visual and computing media and services (+3.0%), garments for women (+2.2%), and glassware, tableware and household utensils (+3.5%). The tradable services component rose 1.3% due to international holiday travel and accommodation (+1.3%) due to peak travel periods in Europe and America.

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.3% in the June quarter 2018. The non-tradable goods component rose 0.7%, mainly due to tobacco (+2.8%), new dwelling purchases by owner occupiers (+0.8%) and takeaway and fast foods (+0.8%). The non-tradable services component rose 0.2%, mainly due to medical and hospital services (+3.1%) and child care (+1.0%).

Over the twelve months to the June quarter 2018, the tradables component rose 0.3% and the non-tradables component rose 3.0%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.4% and the non-tradables component rose 0.7%.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

The All group CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.5% this quarter, and the original All groups CPI recorded a 0.4% rise.

The trimmed mean rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2018, following a rise of 0.5% in the March quarter 2018. Over the last twelve months, the trimmed mean rose 1.9%, following a rise of 1.9% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2018.

The weighted median rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2018, following a rise of 0.5% in the March quarter 2018. Over the last twelve months, the weighted median rose 1.9%, compared to a rise of 2.0% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2018.

		ORIGINAL	SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
		Mar Qtr 2018 to Jun Qtr 2018	Mar Qtr 2018 to Jun Qtr 2018
		%	%
All groups CPI		0.4	0.5
Food and non-alcoholic beverages		-0.4	0.1
Alcohol and tobacco		1.6	1.8
Clothing and footwear		1.3	-0.1
Housing		0.2	0.5
Furnishings, household equipment and services		0.3	-0.2
Health		1.9	0.2
Transport		1.6	1.8
Communication(a)		-1.3	-1.3
Recreation and culture		-0.4	0.5
Education		0.1	1.1
Insurance and financial services		0.4	0.5
International trade exposure series
	Tradables	0.5	0.4
	Non-tradables	0.3	0.7
(a) not seasonally adjusted

A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI and calculation of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.