6401.0 - Consumer Price Index, Australia, Jun 2016 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 27/07/2016   
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MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE


CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis is in original terms.

Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter
Graph: Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter



HEALTH GROUP (+2.6%)

The main contributor to the rise in the health group this quarter is medical and hospital services (+4.2%). The rise is due to increases in private health insurance premiums from 1 April. The rise is partially offset by a fall in pharmaceutical products (-1.9%), mainly due to the cyclical effect of a greater proportion of consumers exceeding the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) safety net.

Over the last twelve months, the health group rose 4.5%. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+5.9%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 1.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+1.6%).


TRANSPORT GROUP (+1.0%)

The main contributor to the rise in the transport group this quarter is automotive fuel (+5.9%). Automotive fuel rose in April (+2.8%), May (+2.3%) and June (+6.3%). All fuel types recorded increases this quarter. The rise is partially offset by a fall in motor vehicles (-1.3%).

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

AVERAGE PRICE OF UNLEADED PETROL (91 OCTANE), cents per litre
Graph: AVERAGE PRICE OF UNLEADED PETROL (91 OCTANE), cents per litre


Over the last twelve months, the transport group fell 2.8%. The main contributor to the fall is automotive fuel (-11.6%). This is partially offset by rises in maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (+2.1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group rose 1.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is automotive fuel (+5.9%).


HOUSING GROUP (+0.4%)

The main contributor to the rise in the housing group this quarter is new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.9%), driven by increasing material costs in some cities. Rents (+0.2%) recorded a modest rise as increasing supply of rental properties is putting downward pressure on prices in the majority of cities.

Over the last twelve months, the housing group rose 1.3%. The main contributor to the rise is new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.9%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group rose 0.7% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.9%).


ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+1.0%)

The main contributors to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group this quarter are tobacco (+2.1%) and spirits (+0.6%).The rise in tobacco is due to flow on effects from the federal excise tax increase effective from 1 March 2016.

Over the last twelve months, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 5.9%. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+12.9%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.3% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+2.9%).


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (-0.7%)

The main contributor to the fall in the recreation and culture group this quarter is domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-3.7%). The fall in domestic holiday travel and accommodation is typical of the off peak season for domestic holiday travel.

Over the last twelve months, the recreation and culture group rose 0.8%. The main contributors to the rise are international holiday travel and accommodation (+5.3%) and other recreational, sporting and cultural services (+4.0%). This is partially offset by a fall in audio, visual and computing equipment (-8.5%).

In the CPI, airfares are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the trip is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (April for travel in June) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (May for travel in June).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group rose 0.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is international holiday travel and accommodation (+1.4%).


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (+2.0%)

The main contributors to the rise in the clothing and footwear group this quarter are garments for women (+1.7%) and footwear for women (+4.5%), due to the introduction of new season stock.

Over the last twelve months, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.2%. The main contributors to the movement are accessories (-1.9%) and garments for men (-1.1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group rose 0.3% this quarter.


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (+0.6%)

The main contributors to the rise in the furnishings, household equipment and services group this quarter are furniture (+2.4%) and glassware, tableware and household utensils (+1.7%) following discontinued post Christmas sales.

Over the last twelve months, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 1.6%. The main contributor to the rise is child care (+8.4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group showed no movement this quarter.


FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (-0.3%)

The main contributors to the fall in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group this quarter are snacks and confectionery (-2.9%), other food products n.e.c. (-6.7%) and coffee, tea and cocoa (-5.2%). The fall is partially offset by a rise in vegetables (+2.1%).

Over the last twelve months, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group fell 0.1%. Falls in fruit (-5.5%) and poultry (-4.9%) are partially offset by rises in beef and veal (+10.9%) and take away and fast foods (+1.9%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group recorded a fall of 0.1%.


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-1.5%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group this quarter is telecommunication equipment and services (-1.5%).

Over the last twelve months, the communication group fell 7.2%. The main contributor to the fall is telecommunication equipment and services (-7.5%).

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+0.5%)

The main contributor to the rise in the insurance and financial services group this quarter is insurance (+1.4%).

Over the last twelve months, the insurance and financial services group rose 2.4%. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+6.3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+1.8%).


EDUCATION GROUP (+0.0%)

The education group recorded no change this quarter.

Over the last twelve months, the education group rose 3.3%. The main contributor to the rise is secondary education (+4.6%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 1.3% this quarter.


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradables component (see Table 8) of the All groups CPI rose 0.6% this quarter. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined on the world market. The tradables component represents approximately 40% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributor to the 0.6% rise in the tradable goods component is automotive fuel. The most significant offsetting fall in the tradable goods component is motor vehicles. The rise in the tradable services component of 0.4% is driven by international holiday travel and accommodation.

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.4% this quarter. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined by domestic price pressures. The non-tradables component represents approximately 60% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributors to the 0.4% rise in the non-tradable goods component is new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers. The rise in the non-tradable services component of 0.3% is driven by medical and hospital services. The most significant offsetting fall in the non-tradable services component is domestic holiday travel and accommodation.

Over the last twelve months, the tradables component recorded no movement, while the non-tradables component rose 1.6%. This compares to a rise of 0.6% and a rise of 1.7% respectively over the twelve months to the previous quarter.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.6% this quarter, while the non-tradables component rose 0.6%.

A detailed description of which expenditure classes are classified as tradable and non-tradable in the 16th series is shown in Appendix 1 of the September quarter 2011 issue of Consumer Price Index, Australia (cat. no 6401.0).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

The All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.6% this quarter, compared to the original All groups CPI which recorded a rise of 0.4%.

The trimmed mean rose 0.5% this quarter, compared to a rise of 0.2% in the March quarter 2016. Over the last twelve months, the trimmed mean rose 1.7%, compared to a rise of 1.7% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2016.

The weighted median rose 0.4% this quarter, compared to a rise of 0.1% in the March quarter 2016. Over the last twelve months, the weighted median rose 1.3%, compared to a revised rise of 1.3% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2016.

ORIGINAL
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Mar Qtr 2016 to Jun Qtr 2016
Mar Qtr 2016 to Jun Qtr 2016
%
%

All groups CPI
0.4
0.6
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
-0.3
-0.1
Alcohol and tobacco
1.0
1.3
Clothing and footwear
2.0
0.3
Housing
0.4
0.7
Furnishings, household equipment and services
0.6
0.0
Health
2.6
1.1
Transport
1.0
1.2
Communication(a)
-1.5
-1.5
Recreation and culture
-0.7
0.6
Education
0.0
1.3
Insurance and financial services
0.5
0.6
International trade exposure series
Tradables
0.6
0.6
Non-tradables
0.4
0.6

(a) not seasonally adjusted


A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI and calculation of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.