6401.0 - Consumer Price Index, Australia, Dec 2014 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 28/01/2015   
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MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE



CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis uses original, not seasonally adjusted, estimates.

Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter
Graph: Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter



TRANSPORT GROUP (-2.2%)

The main contributors to the fall in the transport group for the December quarter 2014 were automotive fuel (-6.8%) and motor vehicles (-1.1%). The fall was partially offset by a rise in maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (+1.4%).

Automotive fuel fell in December (-8.4%) and November (-4.2%), rose in October (+1.2%), fell in September (-1.7%) and August (-4.0%). Global oil markets continue to experience oversupply, which resulted in continued falls in oil prices. In Australia, unleaded petrol prices reached a low of $1.17 per litre in December 2014, the lowest recorded average daily price since February 2009.

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

Diagram: TRANSPORT GROUP (–2.2%)

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the transport group fell 1.9%. The main contributor to the fall was automotive fuel (-8.0%). The fall was partially offset by rises in other services in respect of motor vehicles (+6.8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group fell 1.5% in the December quarter 2014. The main contributor to the fall was automotive fuel (-4.9%).


ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+1.7%)

The main contributor to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group for the December quarter 2014 was tobacco (+4.8%). Increases to tobacco prices were mainly due to the federal excise tax rise and the biannual indexation based on the ABS's Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings (AWOTE) rate. These increases were effective from 1 September 2014.

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 7.4%. The main contributor to the rise was tobacco (+18.0%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 0.8% in the December quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was tobacco (+2.4%).


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (+1.0%)

The main contributors to the rise in the recreation and culture group for the December quarter 2014 were domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+5.8%) and international holiday travel and accommodation (+1.8%). The rise was partially offset by falls in audio, visual and computing equipment (-5.2%) and audio, visual and computing media and services (-3.8%).

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the recreation and culture group rose 0.8%. The main contributor to the rise was international holiday travel and accommodation (+4.3%).

In the CPI, airfares are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the trip is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (e.g. October for travel in December) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (e.g. November for travel in December).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group fell 0.1% in the December quarter 2014. The main contributor to the fall was audio, visual and computing equipment (-4.7%).


HOUSING (+0.5%)

The main contributors to the rise in the housing group for the December quarter 2014 were new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.1%) and rents (+0.5%). The rise was partially offset by a fall in gas and other household fuels (-1.3%).

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the housing group rose 2.4%. The main contributors to the rise were new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+4.0%) and rents (+2.4%). The rise was partially offset by a fall in electricity (-4.4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group rose 0.9% in the December quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.1%).


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+1.0%)

The main contributors to the rise in the insurance and financial services group for the December quarter 2014 were other financial services (+1.1%) and insurance (+1.3%).

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the insurance and financial services group rose 2.0%. The main contributor to this rise was other financial services (+2.6%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 1.0% in the December quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was other financial services (+1.1%).


HEALTH GROUP (-0.9%)

The main contributor to the fall in the health group for the December quarter 2014 was pharmaceutical products (-3.7%), which fell mainly due to the cyclical effect of a greater proportion of consumers exceeding the Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme (PBS) safety net compared to the September quarter 2014.

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the health group rose 4.4%. The main contributor to the rise was medical and hospital services (+6.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 0.6% in the December quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was medical and hospital services (+0.9%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (+0.5%)

The main contributor to the rise in the furnishings, household equipment and services group for the December quarter 2014 was other non-durable household products (+2.5%).

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 0.5%. The main contributor to the rise was child care (+8.1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 0.7% in the December quarter 2014. The main contributor to the rise was other non-durable household products (+2.4%).


FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (+0.1%)

The main contributors to the rise in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group for the December quarter 2014 were other food products n.e.c. (+4.0%), cakes and biscuits (+2.4%) and restaurant meals (+0.7%). The rise was partially offset by falls in fruit (-2.7%) and vegetables (-1.7%) due to an increased supply of summer fruits and salad vegetables.

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 2.0%. The main contributors to the rise were fruit (+7.3%) and restaurant meals (+2.2%). The rise was partially offset by a fall in bread (-3.3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group fell 0.3% in the December quarter 2014. The main contributor to the fall was fruit (-7.1%).


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-0.1%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group for the December quarter 2014 was telecommunication equipment and services (-0.2%).

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the communication group fell 3.0%. The main contributor to the fall was telecommunication equipment and services (-3.4%).

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (+0.1%)

The main contributor to the rise in the clothing and footwear group for the December quarter 2014 was footwear for women (+5.1%). The rise was partially offset by falls in accessories (-1.8%) and garments for women (-1.6%).

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the clothing and footwear group fell 1.5%. The main contributors to the movement were garments for women (-2.5%) and garments for men (-2.3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms the clothing and footwear group rose 0.8% in the December quarter 2014. The main contributors to the rise were footwear for men (+3.7%) and footwear for women (+3.1%).


EDUCATION GROUP (0.0%)

The education group recorded no change in the December quarter 2014.

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the education group rose 5.2%. The main contributor to the rise was secondary education (+6.0%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 1.3% in the December quarter 2014. The main contributors to the rise were secondary education (+1.4%) and tertiary education (+1.1%).


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradables component (see Table 8) of the All groups CPI fell 0.6% in the December quarter 2014. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined on the world market. The tradables component represents approximately 40% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributors to the 0.7% fall in tradable goods component were automotive fuel and audio, visual and computing equipment. The most significant offsetting rises in the tradable goods component were tobacco and other non-durable household products. The rise in the tradable services component of 1.8% was driven by international holiday travel and accommodation.

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.6% in the December quarter 2014. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined by domestic price pressures. The non-tradables component represents approximately 60% of the weight of the CPI. The non-tradable goods component rose 0.5% mainly due to new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers. The most significant offsetting fall was for gas and other household fuels. The non-tradable services component rose 0.7% mainly due to increases in domestic holidays travel and accommodation, other financial services and rents. The most significant offsetting fall was for urban transport fares.

Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the tradables component rose 0.7% and the non-tradables component rose 2.3%. This compares to a rise of 2.0% and a rise of 2.4% respectively through the year to the September quarter 2014.

In seasonally adjusted terms the tradables component of the All groups CPI fell 0.5%, while the non-tradables component rose 0.7%.

A detailed description of which expenditure classes are classified as tradable and non-tradable in the 16th series is shown in Appendix 1 of the September quarter 2011 issue of Consumer Price Index, Australia (cat. no 6401.0).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

In the December quarter 2014, the All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.3%, compared to the original All groups CPI which recorded a rise of 0.2%.

The trimmed mean rose 0.7% in the December quarter 2014, compared to a rise of 0.4% in the September quarter 2014. Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the trimmed mean rose 2.2%, compared to a rise of 2.5% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014.

The weighted median rose 0.7% in the December quarter 2014, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the September quarter 2014. Over the twelve months to the December quarter 2014, the weighted median rose 2.3% compared to a rise of 2.6% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2014.

ORIGINAL
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Sep Qtr 2014 to
Dec Qtr 2014
Sep Qtr 2014 to Dec Qtr 2014

All groups CPI
0.2
0.3
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
0.1
-0.3
Alcohol and tobacco
1.7
0.8
Clothing and footwear
0.1
0.8
Housing
0.5
0.9
Furnishings, household equipment and services
0.5
0.7
Health
-0.9
0.6
Transport
-2.2
-1.5
Communication(a)
-0.1
-0.1
Recreation and culture
1.0
-0.1
Education
0.0
1.3
Insurance and financial services
1.0
1.0
International trade exposure series
Tradables
-0.6
-0.5
Non-tradables
0.6
0.7

(a) not seasonally adjusted.


A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. This paper includes a description of the seasonal adjustment methodology used to calculate the trimmed mean and weighted median measures of underlying inflation.

Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.