WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
TREND REVISIONS
Each time new seasonally adjusted estimates become available, trend estimates are revised (see paragraphs 19 and 20 of Explanatory Notes).
The examples in the tables below show two illustrative scenarios and the consequent revisions to previous trend estimates of employment and the unemployment rate.
(1) The November seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the September estimate by:
0.30% for employment
1.90% for the unemployment rate
(2) The November seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the September estimate by:
0.30% for employment
1.90% for the unemployment rate
The percentage changes of 0.30% and 1.90% were chosen because they represent the average absolute monthly percentage changes in employment and the unemployment rate respectively.
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|  | WHAT IF NEXT MONTH’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS: |
| |
|
| TREND AS | (1) 9645.7 i.e. | (2) 9588.0 i.e. |
| 2003 | PUBLISHED | rises by 0.30% | falls by 0.30% |
|
| July | 9,512.4 | 9,510.6 | 9,511.5 |
| August | 9,527.2 | 9,531.5 | 9,528.9 |
| September | 9,546.1 | 9,558.3 | 9,549.8 |
| October | 9,565.8 | 9,587.2 | 9,571.1 |
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| | WHAT IF NEXT MONTH’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS: |
| |
|
| TREND AS | (1) 5.8 i.e. | (2) 5.5 i.e. |
| 2003 | PUBLISHED | rises by 1.90% | falls by 1.90% |
|
| July | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| August | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| September | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| October | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
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