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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2016 December 155 933 0.8 155 933 0.8 155 933 0.8 2017 March 156 563 0.4 156 563 0.4 156 714 0.5 June 156 824 0.2 156 834 0.2 156 783 0.0 September 156 946 0.1 157 177 0.2 156 452 -0.2

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2016 December 76 040 10.0 76 040 10.0 76 040 10.0 2017 March 79 757 4.9 79 964 5.2 80 373 5.7 June 80 702 1.2 80 658 0.9 80 515 0.2 September 79 736 -1.2 80 518 -0.2 78 549 -2.4