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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2012 September 154 091 0.5 154 091 0.5 154 091 0.5 December 154 376 0.2 154 331 0.2 154 513 0.3 2013 March 154 392 0.0 154 412 0.1 154 350 -0.1 June 154 200 -0.1 154 693 0.2 153 816 -0.3

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.4% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.4% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2012 September 62 265 -0.8 62 265 -0.8 62 265 -0.8 December 62 491 0.4 62 304 0.1 62 632 0.6 2013 March 63 032 0.9 63 091 1.3 62 977 0.6 June 63 771 1.2 64 327 2.0 62 750 -0.4