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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2016 March 153 235 0.0 153 235 0.0 153 235 0.0 June 153 941 0.5 153 872 0.4 154 022 0.5 September 154 906 0.6 154 919 0.7 154 869 0.5 December 155 921 0.7 155 974 0.7 155 254 0.2

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2016 March 60 732 -1.9 60 732 -1.9 60 732 -1.9 June 62 956 3.7 62 475 2.9 62 877 3.5 September 67 984 8.0 68 086 9.0 67 946 8.1 December 74 291 9.3 74 886 10.0 72 953 7.4