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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2011 March 143 291 0.4 143 291 0.4 143 291 0.4 June 144 168 0.6 144 093 0.6 144 266 0.7 September 145 006 0.6 145 025 0.6 144 967 0.5 December 145 844 0.6 146 078 0.7 145 248 0.2

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.4% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.4% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2011 March 66 093 1.5 66 093 1.5 66 093 1.5 June 67 802 2.6 67 773 2.5 68 171 3.1 September 68 643 1.2 68 648 1.3 68 510 0.5 December 68 579 -0.1 68 790 0.2 66 878 -2.4