5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Dec 2007  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 28/02/2008   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 44 and 45 in the EN.


Buildings and Structures

Graph: What If Buildings


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 6.7%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 6.7%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2007
March
(a)8 383
na
(a)8 383
na
(a)8 383
na
June
8 665
3.4
8 658
3.3
8 703
3.8
September
8 680
0.2
8 684
0.3
8 667
-0.4
December
8 576
-1.2
8 713
0.3
8 495
-2.0
na not available
(a) Break in series between December 2006 and March 2007.


Equipment, Plant and Machinery

Graph: What If Equipment


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.9%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.9%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2007
March
(a)11 213
na
(a)11 213
na
(a)11 213
na
June
11 488
2.5
11 463
2.2
11 532
2.8
September
11 700
1.8
11 707
2.1
11 683
1.3
December
11 852
1.3
11 992
2.4
11 661
-0.2
na not available
(a) Break in series between December 2006 and March 2007.


Total Capital Expenditure

Graph: What If Total


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.4%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.4%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2007
March
(a)19 592
na
(a)19 592
na
(a)19 592
na
June
20 154
2.9
20 099
2.6
20 262
3.4
September
20 389
1.2
20 408
1.5
20 352
0.4
December
20 453
0.3
20 846
2.1
20 064
-1.4
na not available
(a) Break in series between December 2006 and March 2007.