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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2014 December 24 888 -3.6 24 888 -3.6 24 888 -3.6 2015 March 23 385 -6.0 23 340 -6.2 23 379 -6.1 June 21 732 -7.1 21 744 -6.8 21 729 -7.1 September 20 217 -7.0 20 518 -5.6 20 330 -6.4

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2014 December 13 191 1.1 13 191 1.1 13 191 1.1 2015 March 12 945 -1.9 12 960 -1.7 12 982 -1.6 June 12 427 -4.0 12 430 -4.1 12 423 -4.3 September 11 837 -4.7 11 936 -4.0 11 833 -4.7

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2014 December 38 079 -2.0 38 079 -2.0 38 079 -2.0 2015 March 36 339 -4.6 36 301 -4.7 36 361 -4.5 June 34 164 -6.0 34 195 -5.8 34 174 -6.0 September 31 949 -6.5 32 463 -5.1 32 173 -5.9