5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Sep 2003  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 27/11/2003   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 38 and 39 in the Explanatory Notes.

BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES
Graph - What If Buildings
TREND AS PUBLISHED
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
(1) rises by 6.7% on this quarter
(2) falls by 6.7% on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2002
December
3,125
6.1
3,125
6.1
3,125
6.1
2003
March
3,241
3.7
3,235
3.5
3,253
4.1
June
3,329
2.7
3,331
3.0
3,324
2.2
September
3,401
2.1
3,464
4.0
3,377
1.6
EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY
Graph - What If, Equipment Plant and Machinery
TREND AS PUBLISHED
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
(1) rises by 4.9% on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.9 % on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2002
December
9,725
3.9
9,725
3.9
9,725
3.9
2003
March
9,985
2.7
9,967
2.5
10,027
3.1
June
10,196
2.1
10,202
2.4
10,180
1.5
September
10,350
1.5
10,501
2.9
10,211
0.3

TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
Graph - What If Total Capital Expenditure
TREND AS PUBLISHED
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
(1) rises by 4.4% on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.4% on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2002
December
12,850
4.4
12,850
4.4
12,850
4.4
2003
March
13,222
2.9
13,185
2.6
13,295
3.5
June
13,524
2.3
13,534
2.6
13,496
1.5
September
13,768
1.8
14,039
3.7
13,511
0.1