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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2013 September 26 227 1.8 26 227 1.8 26 227 1.8 December 26 164 -0.2 26 164 -0.2 26 224 - 2014 March 25 721 -1.7 25 728 -1.7 25 705 -2.0 June 25 223 -1.9 25 489 -0.9 25 201 -2.0 - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2013 September 13 094 -4.0 13 094 -4.0 13 094 -4.0 December 12 642 -3.5 12 596 -3.8 12 621 -3.6 2014 March 12 351 -2.3 12 367 -1.8 12 358 -2.1 June 12 218 -1.1 12 387 0.2 12 266 -0.7

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2013 September 39 321 -0.2 39 321 -0.2 39 321 -0.2 December 38 807 -1.3 38 761 -1.4 38 846 -1.2 2014 March 38 073 -1.9 38 098 -1.7 38 069 -2.0 June 37 408 -1.7 37 879 -0.6 37 473 -1.6