5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Jun 2007  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/08/2007   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 44 and 45 in the EN.


Buildings and Structures

Graph: What If Buildings


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 6.7%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 6.7%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2006
September
7 126
-1.8
7 126
-1.8
7 126
-1.8
December
7 170
0.6
7 138
0.2
7 179
0.7
2007
March
(a)7 928
na
(a)7 942
na
(a)7 925
na
June
8 392
5.9
8 470
6.7
8 258
4.2

(a) Break in series between December 2006 and March 2007. na not available


Equipment, Plant and Machinery

Graph: What If Equipment


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.9%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.9%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2006
September
10 963
-2.5
10 962
-2.5
10 962
-2.5
December
11 080
1.1
11 018
0.5
11 088
1.1
2007
March
(a)11 717
na
(a)11 730
na
(a)11 705
na
June
12 247
4.5
12 358
5.3
12 014
2.6

(a) Break in series between December 2006 and March 2007. na not available

Total Capital Expenditure

Graph: What If Total


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.4%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.4%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2006
September
18 101
-2.2
18 100
-2.2
18 100
-2.2
December
18 253
0.8
18 133
0.2
18 293
1.1
2007
March
(a)19 638
na
(a)19 673
na
(a)19 616
na
June
20 685
5.3
20 957
6.5
20 164
2.8

(a) Break in series between December 2006 and March 2007. na not available