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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
TREND REVISIONS
Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 38 and 39 in the Explanatory Notes.
BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES
 |  | TREND AS PUBLISHED
| | WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
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| | | (1) rises by 6.7% on this quarter
| | (2) falls by 6.7% on this quarter
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| $m | % | | $m | % | | $m | % |
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| 2002 | | | | | | | | |
| September | 2,958 | 7.7 | | 2,958 | 7.7 | | 2,958 | 7.7 |
| December | 3,126 | 5.7 | | 3,125 | 5.6 | | 3,142 | 6.2 |
| 2003 | | | | | | | | |
| March | 3,193 | 2.1 | | 3,192 | 2.1 | | 3,185 | 1.4 |
| June | 3,189 | -0.1 | | 3,227 | 1.1 | | 3,147 | -1.2 |
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EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY
 | | TREND AS PUBLISHED
| | WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
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| | | (1) rises by 4.9% on this quarter
| | (2) falls by 4.9 % on this quarter
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| $m | % | | $m | % | | $m | % |
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| 2002 | | | | | | | | |
| September | 9,342 | 4.4 | | 9,342 | 4.4 | | 9,342 | 4.4 |
| December | 9,719 | 4.0 | | 9,710 | 3.9 | | 9,769 | 4.6 |
| 2003 | | | | | | | | |
| March | 10,013 | 3.0 | | 10,016 | 3.1 | | 9,995 | 2.3 |
| June | 10,217 | 2.0 | | 10,308 | 2.9 | | 10,025 | 0.3 |
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TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
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 | | TREND AS PUBLISHED
| | WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
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| | | | | | | | |
| | | | (1) rises by 4.4% on this quarter
| | (2) falls by 4.4% on this quarter
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| $m | % | | $m | % | | $m | % |
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| 2002 | | | | | | | | |
| September | 12,301 | 5.1 | | 12,301 | 5.1 | | 12,301 | 5.1 |
| December | 12,841 | 4.4 | | 12,821 | 4.2 | | 12,926 | 5.1 |
| 2003 | | | | | | | | |
| March | 13,205 | 2.8 | | 13,209 | 3.0 | | 13,172 | 1.9 |
| June | 13,415 | 1.6 | | 13,606 | 3.0 | | 13,100 | -0.6 |
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