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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 6.8% on this quarter (2) falls by 6.8% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2009 March 14 058 2.7 14 058 2.7 14 058 2.7 June 13 663 -2.8 13 634 -3.0 13 735 -2.3 September 13 100 -4.1 13 123 -3.8 13 084 -4.7 December 12 650 -3.4 12 965 -1.2 12 478 -4.6

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2009 March 13 599 -3.5 13 599 -3.5 13 599 -3.5 June 13 577 -0.2 13 487 -0.8 13 559 -0.3 September 13 973 2.9 13 997 3.8 13 971 3.0 December 14 601 4.5 14 792 5.7 14 442 3.4

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2009 March 27 662 -0.3 27 662 -0.3 27 662 -0.3 June 27 240 -1.5 27 142 -1.9 27 273 -1.4 September 27 074 -0.6 27 115 -0.1 27 070 -0.7 December 27 223 0.5 27 655 2.0 27 028 -0.2