5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Sep 2015 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 26/11/2015   
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APPENDIX SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $32,104m and the calculated standard error in this case is $451m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $32,104m.

For instance, the standard error of $451m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $31,653m to $32,555m ($32,104m $451m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $31,202m to $33,006m ($32,104m $902m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for September Quarter 2015 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m

Mining
98
75
144
Manufacturing
22
123
126
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
47
16
47
Construction
10
144
145
Wholesale Trade
58
61
87
Retail Trade
62
74
93
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
38
136
142
Information Media and Telecommunications
-
55
55
Financial and Insurance Services
39
37
58
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
201
105
253
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
10
86
87
Other Selected Services
134
140
220
Total
267
347
451
New South Wales
116
199
246
Victoria
87
167
202
Queensland
140
142
220
South Australia
82
71
109
Western Australia
177
92
191
Tasmania
8
7
12
Northern Territory
57
18
59
Australian Capital Territory
1
22
22
Australia
267
347
451

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)



MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $37,411m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $32,104m.

In this example the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $496m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $5,307m.

For instance, the standard error of $496m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two quarter period falls within the range $4,811m to $5,803m ($5,307m $496m).
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $4,315m to $6,299m ($5,307m $992m)

The following table shows the standard errors for September Quarter 2015 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m

Mining
63
50
84
Manufacturing
36
139
151
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
32
29
42
Construction
18
290
288
Wholesale Trade
16
94
95
Retail Trade
63
68
90
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
121
143
172
Information Media and Telecommunications
-
55
55
Financial and Insurance Services
21
41
48
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
240
82
256
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
36
93
101
Other Selected Services
127
146
185
Total
346
440
496
New South Wales
105
222
229
Victoria
81
210
209
Queensland
302
254
384
South Australia
7
84
83
Western Australia
91
113
138
Tasmania
8
33
33
Northern Territory
22
44
48
Australian Capital Territory
1
31
31
Australia
346
440
496

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)