5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Mar 2019 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/05/2019   
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APPENDIX 1 SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $26,489m and the calculated standard error in this case is $393m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $26,489m.

For instance, the standard error of $393m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $26,096m to $26,882m ($26,489m ± $393m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $25,703m to $27,275m ($26,489m ± $786m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for March quarter 2019 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
66
38
72
Manufacturing
44
71
86
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
80
17
93
Construction
23
183
185
Wholesale Trade
21
70
75
Retail Trade
87
64
118
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
20
86
91
Information Media and Telecommunications
1
34
34
Financial and Insurance Services
6
60
61
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
71
107
124
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
63
80
106
Other Selected Services
112
113
177
Total
213
295
393
New South Wales
117
122
178
Victoria
119
189
240
Queensland
55
167
179
South Australia
64
58
102
Western Australia
48
62
86
Tasmania
2
20
20
Northern Territory
1
29
29
Australian Capital Territory
1
23
23
Australia
213
295
393


MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $33,412m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $26,489m.

In this example, the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $436m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $6,923m.

For instance, the standard error of $436m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two-quarter period falls within the range $6,487m to $7,359m ($6,923m ± $436m).
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $6,051m to $7,795m ($6,923m ± $872m).

The following table shows the standard errors for March quarter 2019 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
55
46
69
Manufacturing
43
109
120
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
27
9
32
Construction
18
243
244
Wholesale Trade
26
105
105
Retail Trade
118
91
163
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
21
132
134
Information Media and Telecommunications
5
37
38
Financial and Insurance Services
94
44
104
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
69
87
111
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
69
105
110
Other Selected Services
91
143
176
Total
231
372
436
New South Wales
136
216
250
Victoria
145
255
274
Queensland
62
208
204
South Australia
55
49
72
Western Australia
37
90
100
Tasmania
14
44
45
Northern Territory
5
32
32
Australian Capital Territory
3
23
23
Australia
231
372
436