5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Jun 2019 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 29/08/2019   
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Sampling errors (Appendix)


Level estimates


Introduction

The estimates are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $32,737m and the calculated standard error in this case is $485m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $32,737m.

For instance, the standard error of $485m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $32,252m to $33,222m ($32,737m ± $485m
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $31,767m to $33,707m ($32,737m ± $970m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for June quarter 2019 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
82
46
94
Manufacturing
66
112
136
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
31
10
33
Construction
15
206
208
Wholesale Trade
14
86
92
Retail Trade
101
68
143
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
15
191
190
Information Media and Telecommunications
3
49
49
Financial and Insurance Services
22
62
74
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
165
136
206
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
19
103
108
Other Selected Services
113
142
186
Total
260
407
485
New South Wales
186
205
296
Victoria
120
216
275
Queensland
67
231
235
South Australia
88
110
153
Western Australia
53
102
125
Tasmania
7
53
55
Northern Territory
7
31
32
Australian Capital Territory
5
20
21
Australia
260
407
485



MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $26,530m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $32,737m.

In this example, the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $510m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $6,207m.

For instance, the standard error of $510m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two-quarter period falls within the range $5,697m to $6,717m ($6,207m ± $510m).
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $5,187m to $7,227m ($6,207m ± $1,020m).

The following table shows the standard errors for June quarter 2019 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
56
40
65
Manufacturing
54
102
123
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
54
10
58
Construction
30
201
205
Wholesale Trade
13
100
100
Retail Trade
91
71
138
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
23
216
217
Information Media and Telecommunications
3
29
29
Financial and Insurance Services
22
49
63
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
137
130
183
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
63
106
128
Other Selected Services
97
158
190
Total
211
418
510
New South Wales
162
176
259
Victoria
114
235
272
Queensland
48
217
219
South Australia
58
106
123
Western Australia
32
90
96
Tasmania
7
46
47
Northern Territory
2
15
15
Australian Capital Territory
6
23
24
Australia
211
418
510