5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Jun 2018 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/08/2018   
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APPENDIX 1 SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $31,511m and the calculated standard error in this case is $521m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $31,511m.

For instance, the standard error of $521m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $30,990m to $32,032m ($31,511m $521m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $30,469m to $32,553m ($31,511m $1,042m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for June quarter 2018 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m

Mining
63
41
84
Manufacturing
61
107
133
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
35
45
61
Construction
22
196
201
Wholesale Trade
18
94
97
Retail Trade
121
80
131
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
36
166
170
Information Media and Telecommunications
-
34
34
Financial and Insurance Services
60
59
92
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
164
115
198
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
21
79
82
Other Selected Services
131
156
204
Total
272
406
521
New South Wales
193
182
276
Victoria
103
188
223
Queensland
117
221
249
South Australia
69
107
132
Western Australia
75
124
158
Tasmania
11
65
67
Northern Territory
15
11
19
Australian Capital Territory
4
22
22
Australia
272
406
521

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)


MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $26,276m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $31,511m.

In this example, the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $462m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $5,235m.

For instance, the standard error of $462m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two-quarter period falls within the range $4,773m to $5,697m ($5,235m $462m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $4,311m to $6,159m ($5,235m $924m)

The following table shows the standard errors for June quarter 2018 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m

Mining
35
26
44
Manufacturing
49
125
135
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
36
38
55
Construction
26
220
224
Wholesale Trade
18
75
82
Retail Trade
120
81
141
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
72
175
193
Information Media and Telecommunications
3
39
39
Financial and Insurance Services
36
63
76
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
154
122
204
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
15
86
86
Other Selected Services
132
157
206
Total
262
382
462
New South Wales
195
221
278
Victoria
126
219
253
Queensland
85
193
218
South Australia
62
107
124
Western Australia
96
96
139
Tasmania
8
67
68
Northern Territory
7
13
15
Australian Capital Territory
5
29
30
Australia
262
382
462