5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Jun 2016 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/09/2016   
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APPENDIX SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $31,129 and the calculated standard error in this case is $553m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $31,129.

For instance, the standard error of $553m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $30,576m to $31,682m ($31,129m ± $553m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $30,023m to $32,235m ($31,129m ± $1,106m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for June Quarter 2016 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
115
33
118
Manufacturing
40
89
117
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
27
26
37
Construction
5
246
246
Wholesale Trade
78
96
130
Retail Trade
59
45
77
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
64
118
133
Information Media and Telecommunications
4
53
53
Financial and Insurance Services
13
57
59
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
138
134
209
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
43
132
153
Other Selected Services
122
150
206
Total
301
427
553
New South Wales
103
270
335
Victoria
96
197
221
Queensland
173
243
298
South Australia
69
38
85
Western Australia
118
133
190
Tasmania
14
21
25
Northern Territory
48
21
58
Australian Capital Territory
23
20
40
Australia
301
427
553



MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $27,624m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $31,129m.

In this example, the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $486m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $3,505m.

For instance, the standard error of $486m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two-quarter period falls within the range $3,019m to $3,991m ($3,505m ± $486m).
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $2,533m to $4,477m ($3,505m ± $972m)

The following table shows the standard errors for June Quarter 2016 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
114
35
117
Manufacturing
39
95
117
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
25
35
45
Construction
8
277
278
Wholesale Trade
74
101
109
Retail Trade
48
39
63
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
104
124
147
Information Media and Telecommunications
4
42
42
Financial and Insurance Services
12
75
77
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
198
158
260
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
29
128
133
Other Selected Services
147
166
199
Total
322
352
486
New South Wales
147
250
302
Victoria
115
228
247
Queensland
193
191
279
South Australia
48
84
89
Western Australia
168
119
206
Tasmania
14
27
32
Northern Territory
45
44
69
Australian Capital Territory
23
19
37
Australia
322
352
486