5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Sep 2006  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/11/2006   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates:


1 The October 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is higher than the September 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.


2 The October 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is lower than the September 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.


The percentage change of 3.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 3.0%.


Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: What If
What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 3% on this month
(2) falls by 3% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
April 2006
61 215
1.6
61 216
1.6
61 288
1.7
May 2006
62 035
1.3
62 036
1.3
62 163
1.4
June 2006
62 620
0.9
62 622
0.9
62 685
0.8
July 2006
62 965
0.6
62 967
0.6
62 800
0.2
August 2006
63 121
0.2
63 164
0.3
62 612
-0.3
September 2006
63 129
-
63 288
0.2
62 248
-0.6
October 2006
-
-
63 336
0.1
61 767
-0.8
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)