5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, May 2006  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/07/2006   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates:


1 The June 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is higher than the May 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.


2 The June 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is lower than the May 2006 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.


The percentage change of 3.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 3.0%.


Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 3% on this month
(2) falls by 3% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
December 2005
58 618
0.6
58 565
0.5
58 638
0.6
January 2006
58 936
0.5
58 838
0.5
58 966
0.6
February 2006
59 379
0.8
59 327
0.8
59 391
0.7
March 2006
59 976
1.0
60 127
1.3
59 959
1.0
April 2006
60 633
1.1
61 116
1.6
60 558
1.0
May 2006
61 268
1.0
62 151
1.7
61 099
0.9
June 2006
-
-
63 124
1.6
61 538
0.7
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)