5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Jul 2008  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 09/09/2008   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The August 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the July 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.4%.

2 The August 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the July 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.4%.

The percentage change of 2.4% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 2.4%.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.4% on this month
(2) falls by 2.4% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
January 2008
64 154
-1.5
64 153
-1.5
64 153
-1.5
February 2008
62 105
-3.2
62 090
-3.2
62 137
-3.1
March 2008
59 321
-4.5
59 275
-4.5
59 357
-4.5
April 2008
56 311
-5.1
56 276
-5.1
56 316
-5.1
May 2008
53 566
-4.9
53 697
-4.6
53 589
-4.8
June 2008
51 244
-4.3
51 736
-3.7
51 379
-4.1
July 2008
49 353
-3.7
50 286
-2.8
49 612
-3.4