5609.0 - Housing Finance for Owner Occupation, Australia, Jan 2004  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/03/2004   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All

What If...? Revisions to Trend Estimates


Effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on trend estimates


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 21 to 22 in the Explanatory Notes.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates:


1 The February 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is higher than the January 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.


2 The February 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is lower than the January 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.


The percentage change of 4.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 4.0%.

Number of Dwellings Financed

Graph: What if Graph, Number of dwellings financed
What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4% on this month
(2) falls by 4% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
August 2003
59,187
1.9
59,275
2.0
59,336
2.2
September 2003
59,549
0.6
59,691
0.7
59,799
0.8
October 2003
59,150
-0.7
59,214
-0.8
59,267
-0.9
November 2003
58,223
-1.6
58,088
-1.9
57,947
-2.2
December 2003
57,027
-2.1
56,692
-2.4
56,225
-3.0
January 2004
55,730
-2.3
55,295
-2.5
54,415
-3.2
February 2004
-
-
53,951
-2.4
52,623
-3.3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)