5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Feb 2016 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/04/2016   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The March 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the February 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

2 The March 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the February 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

The percentage change chosen is the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: Sensitivity Analysis

What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.1% on this month
(2) falls by 2.1% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
August 2015
54 993
0.7
54 993
0.7
54 993
0.7
September 2015
55 528
1.0
55 518
1.0
55 561
1.0
October 2015
56 081
1.0
56 065
1.0
56 141
1.0
November 2015
56 503
0.8
56 498
0.8
56 536
0.7
December 2015
56 765
0.5
56 780
0.5
56 678
0.3
January 2016
56 907
0.3
56 964
0.3
56 629
-0.1
February 2016
56 924
0.0
57 097
0.2
56 465
-0.3