5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Feb 2013 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 15/04/2013   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The March 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the February 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

2 The March 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the February 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

The percentage change chosen is the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.1% on this month
(2) falls by 2.1% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
August 2012
45 831
0.6
45 831
0.6
45 831
0.6
September 2012
45 944
0.2
45 926
0.2
45 963
0.3
October 2012
45 889
-0.1
45 857
-0.1
45 922
-0.1
November 2012
45 683
-0.4
45 667
-0.4
45 699
-0.5
December 2012
45 419
-0.6
45 470
-0.4
45 384
-0.7
January 2013
45 174
-0.5
45 356
-0.2
45 074
-0.7
February 2013
44 931
-0.5
45 339
0.0
44 806
-0.6