5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Feb 2009 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/04/2009   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The March 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the February 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.3%.

2 The March 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the February 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.3%.

The percentage change of 2.3% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 2.3%.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.3% on this month
(2) falls by 2.3% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
August 2008
48 985
-1.3
48 985
-1.3
48 985
-1.3
September 2008
49 199
0.4
49 097
0.2
49 147
0.3
October 2008
50 141
1.9
50 001
1.8
50 089
1.9
November 2008
51 491
2.7
51 440
2.9
51 484
2.8
December 2008
53 000
2.9
53 103
3.2
52 987
2.9
January 2009
54 484
2.8
54 747
3.1
54 364
2.6
February 2009
55 847
2.5
56 218
2.7
55 496
2.1