WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.
The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:
1 The May 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the April 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.4%.
2 The May 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the April 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.4%.
The percentage change of 2.4% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 2.4%.
Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments
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 | | | What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate: |
| Trend as published | (1) rises by 2.4% on this month | (2) falls by 2.4% on this month |
| no. | % change | no. | % change | no. | % change |
|
| October 2007 | 64 729 | 0.6 | 64 730 | 0.6 | 64 730 | 0.6 |
| November 2007 | 65 097 | 0.6 | 65 134 | 0.6 | 65 188 | 0.7 |
| December 2007 | 64 950 | -0.2 | 65 015 | -0.2 | 65 109 | -0.1 |
| January 2008 | 64 129 | -1.3 | 64 164 | -1.3 | 64 210 | -1.4 |
| February 2008 | 62 827 | -2.0 | 62 762 | -2.2 | 62 638 | -2.4 |
| March 2008 | 61 313 | -2.4 | 61 132 | -2.6 | 60 724 | -3.1 |
| April 2008 | 59 774 | -2.5 | 59 562 | -2.6 | 58 792 | -3.2 |
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