WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.
The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates:
1 The May 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is higher than the April 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.
2 The May 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is lower than the April 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.
The percentage change of 3.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 3.0%.
Number of Dwellings Financed
|  |
| | | What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
|
| Trend as published
| (1) rises by 3% on this month
| (2) falls by 3% on this month
|
| no. | % change | no. | % change | no. | % change |
|
| October 2004 | 51,317 | 1.1 | 51,317 | 1.1 | 51,317 | 1.1 |
| November 2004 | 52,070 | 1.5 | 52,039 | 1.4 | 52,104 | 1.5 |
| December 2004 | 52,934 | 1.7 | 52,884 | 1.6 | 52,999 | 1.7 |
| January 2005 | 53,860 | 1.7 | 53,835 | 1.8 | 53,892 | 1.7 |
| February 2005 | 54,757 | 1.7 | 54,819 | 1.8 | 54,667 | 1.4 |
| March 2005 | 55,560 | 1.5 | 55,751 | 1.7 | 55,251 | 1.1 |
| April 2005 | 56,224 | 1.2 | 56,596 | 1.5 | 55,655 | 0.7 |
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