TECHNICAL NOTE LOW VALUE THRESHOLD UPDATE


INTRODUCTION

1 In the August 2013 issue of International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia (cat. no. 5368.0) a coverage adjustment was introduced to include all imports of goods under the Low Value Threshold (LVT) in the balance of payments good debits estimates. The Technical Note - Low Value Threshold was released in the publication to detail the methodology for calculating the adjustment. Since the Technical Note - Low Value Threshold was published, three additional data sources have become available: 2011-12 financial year value data for imports lodged with a self assessed clearance; a quarterly quantities series for imports under the LVT via parcel post; and a monthly value series for imports lodged with a self assessed clearance. This technical note details changes to the methodology published in August 2013 arising from the incorporation of these three additional data sources and the revised estimates for imports under the LVT resulting from these changes.


BACKGROUND

2 There are three channels through which goods can be imported into Australia:

• Full Import Declaration (FID) - This refers to goods that are imported with a full Australian Customs and Border Protection Service (Customs and Border Protection) declaration. Imports with a FID valued over $1,000 are included in international merchandise trade and balance of payments statistics. Imports with a FID valued under $1,000 are excluded from international merchandise trade statistics, but are included in balance of payments statistics via a coverage adjustment.
• Self Assessed Clearance (SAC) - This refers to goods that are imported either as air or sea cargo where a SAC declaration is completed rather than a FID. SAC declarations are only completed for imports less than $1,000 and therefore imports with a SAC are not included in international merchandise trade statistics. On a balance of payments basis, imports with a SAC declaration were included in estimates from July 1998 in the August 2013 issue of this publication.
• Parcel Post - Imports via the international postal network valued over $1,000 require a FID to be lodged, and are included in international merchandise trade and balance of payments statistics. Imports valued under $1,000 are currently exempt from having to submit a FID or SAC declaration and consequently imports via this channel are not included in international merchandise trade statistics. On a balance of payments basis, imports under the LVT via parcel post were included in estimates from July 1998 in the August 2013 issue of this publication.

3 Prior to November 2005 the LVT was set at $250 for air and sea cargo and $1,000 for postal items. In November 2005 the LVT for air and sea cargo was raised to $1,000.


CHANGES TO METHODOLOGY

4 In the Technical Note - Low Value Threshold, published in the August 2013 issue of this publication, the methodology for the calculation of the LVT adjustment was detailed for two time periods. The first time period, prior to March quarter 2006, remains unchanged from the original methodology. The second time period, from March quarter 2006 onwards, has been modified to incorporate the additional financial year of SAC value data and the following additional ongoing data sources:

• quarterly parcel post quantities from September quarter 2011
• monthly value data for imports lodged with a SAC from January 2012.

5 The modifications to the original methodology to incorporate each of the additional data sources are detailed below.


ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL YEAR OF SAC VALUE DATA

6 Between September quarter 2011 and December quarter 2011 additional SAC value data for 2011-12 financial year has been included.


QUARTERLY PARCEL POST QUANTITIES

7 From September quarter 2011, the new parcel post quantities series replaces the previously modelled quantities series. The methodology for calculating the average value series remains the same as detailed in the Technical Note - Low Value Threshold, published in the August 2013 issue of this publication.


MONTHLY SAC VALUE DATA

8 From January 2012, monthly value data for imports lodged with a SAC has replaced the previously modelled estimates.


PRO-RATION OF QUARTERLY SERIES TO MONTHLY AND ALLOCATION TO COMMODITY CATEGORIES

9 Quarterly estimates, from September quarter 1998 to December quarter 2011, continue to be pro-rated to a monthly basis using the methodology as described in the Technical Note - Low Value Threshold, published in the August 2013 issue of this publication. From March quarter 2012 onwards, SAC value data is available on a monthly basis and is not required to be pro-rated. Parcel post estimates continue to be pro-rated from a quarterly to a monthly basis using monthly SAC quantities. Estimates continue to be allocated to individual Balance of Payments Broad Economic Category (BoPBEC) components using the methodology described in the Technical Note - Low Value Threshold, published in the August 2013 issue of this publication.


UPDATED ESTIMATES

10 Due to the incorporation of additional data sources and resultant changes in methodology, LVT estimates have been revised back to September quarter 2011. The value of the SAC and parcel post LVT adjustment was revised from $7.5b to $6.7b in 2013-14. Annual estimates from 1998-99 to 2013-14 are shown in Figure 1.

OTHER INFORMATION

11 The estimates presented here are made using a range of assumptions. More reliable sources of data may become available in the future to replace these assumptions and improve the quality of the estimates.

12 There is a comparable LVT for the reporting of exports to Customs and Border Protection, which is currently $2,000. There are no reliable sources of information to enable estimation of trade not recorded on an export declaration and it is expected to be much less significant.

13 The ABS is also investigating methods to estimate the value of intangible products consumed by Australian households. These include services that are delivered online by non-residents, such as e-books, films, music, software, online newspaper and magazine subscriptions and gambling services.

14 The Information Paper: Measurement of Online Retail Trade in Macroeconomic Statistics, 2013 (cat. no. 8501.0.55.007) was released on 19 August 2013 and explains where online retail trade is currently included in ABS macroeconomic statistics and describes enhancements to improve measurement and coverage of online retail trade activity in both retail trade statistics and the wider macroeconomic accounts.