ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,596m in September 2015, a decrease of $183m (7%) on the deficit in August 2015.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,317m in September 2015, a decrease of $394m (15%) on the deficit in August 2015.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balance for the three months to September was a deficit of $7,511m, a decrease of $3,042m (29%) on the deficit of $10,553m for the three months to June 2015.

However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary September quarter 2015 deficit was $7,480m, a decrease of $3,496m (32%) on the June quarter 2015 deficit of $10,976m.

Revised quarterly estimates will be included in Balance of Payments - Goods and Services, Preliminary Quarterly Estimates (cat. no. 5302.0.55.004) and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Jul 2015	Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Sep 2015	Sep 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-2 483	-2 711	-2 317	394	15
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 706	26 527	27 428	901	3
		Total goods		21 332	21 165	22 024	859	4
			Rural goods(b)	3 694	3 755	3 798	43	1
			Non-rural goods(b)	15 913	16 000	16 681	681	4
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	36	36	37	1	3
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 690	1 374	1 509	135	10
		Total services		5 374	5 362	5 404	42	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-29 189	-29 238	-29 745	507	2
		Total goods		-23 106	-23 167	-23 568	401	2
			Consumption goods	-7 992	-8 173	-8 437	264	3
			Capital goods	-5 668	-5 314	-5 429	115	2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 130	-9 336	-9 198	-138	-1
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-317	-343	-504	161	47
		Total services		-6 082	-6 071	-6 177	106	2
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				-2 936	-2 779	-2 596	183	7
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 320	26 588	26 902	314	1
		Total goods		20 974	21 226	21 523	297	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 748	3 746	3 758	12	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	15 896	16 058	16 254	196	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	35	36	36	-	-
			Non-monetary gold	1 294	1 386	1 475	89	6
		Total services		5 346	5 363	5 379	16	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-29 256	-29 367	-29 498	131	-
		Total goods		-23 162	-23 254	-23 371	117	1
			Consumption goods	-8 043	-8 178	-8 304	126	2
			Capital goods	-5 252	-5 281	-5 324	43	1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 502	-9 412	-9 335	-77	-1
			Non-monetary gold	-365	-384	-407	23	6
		Total services		-6 094	-6 113	-6 128	15	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August and September 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $314m (1%) to $26,902m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $901m (3%) to $27,428m. Non-rural goods rose $681m (4%), non-monetary gold rose $135m (10%), rural goods rose $43m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (3%). Services credits rose $42m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Jul 2015	Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Sep 2015	Sep 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				21 332	21 165	22 024	859	4
	General merchandise			19 606	19 755	20 478	723	4
		Rural goods		3 694	3 755	3 798	43	1
			Meat and meat preparations	1 111	1 126	1 153	27	2
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	839	784	766	-18	-2
			Wool and sheepskins	297	296	293	-3	-1
			Other rural(a)	1 447	1 549	1 585	36	2
		Non-rural goods		15 913	16 000	16 681	681	4
			Metal ores and minerals	6 053	6 020	6 498	478	8
			Coal, coke and briquettes(b)	3 114	3 323	3 027	-296	-9
			Other mineral fuels(c)	1 784	1 962	1 985	23	1
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	994	838	1 098	260	31
			Machinery	863	886	882	-4	-
			Transport equipment	498	463	447	-16	-3
			Other manufactures	1 524	1 516	1 586	70	5
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	950	869	1 032	163	19
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	131	124	128	4	3
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(d)			36	36	37	1	3
	Non-monetary gold(d)			1 690	1 374	1 509	135	10
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $12m to $3,758m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $43m (1%) to $3,798m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was other rural, up $36m (2%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $196m (1%) to $16,254m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $681m (4%) to $16,681m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $478m (8%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $260m (31%)
• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $163m (19%).

Partly offsetting these rises was coal, coke and briquettes, down $296m (9%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained unchanged at $36m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (3%) to $37m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $89m (6%) to $1,475m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $135m (10%) to $1,509m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Jul 2015	Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Sep 2015	Sep 2015
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services credits			5 374	5 362	5 404	42	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		2	1	2	1	100
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		15	8	7	-1	-13
	Transport		534	540	538	-2	-
		Passenger(b)	198	203	202	-1	-
		Freight(c)	18	19	16	-3	-16
		Other	223	224	227	3	1
		Postal and courier services(d)	96	95	93	-2	-2
	Travel		3 294	3 283	3 318	35	1
	Other services		1 528	1 530	1 539	9	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service credits(e)		3 492	3 485	3 520	35	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, service credits rose $16m to $5,379m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $42m (1%) to $5,404m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $35m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $35m (1%) to $3,520m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 20% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August and September 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $131m to $29,498m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $507m (2%) to $29,745m. Consumption goods rose $264m (3%), non-monetary gold rose $161m (47%) and capital goods rose $115m (2%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $138m (1%). Services debits rose $106m (2%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Jul 2015	Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Sep 2015	Sep 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-23 106	-23 167	-23 568	401	2
	General merchandise			-22 789	-22 824	-23 064	240	1
		Consumption goods		-7 992	-8 173	-8 437	264	3
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 181	-1 168	-1 165	-3	-
			Household electrical items	-491	-504	-520	16	3
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 888	-1 894	-2 086	192	10
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 393	-1 427	-1 486	59	4
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-557	-568	-574	6	1
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 482	-2 613	-2 606	-7	-
		Capital goods		-5 668	-5 314	-5 429	115	2
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 768	-1 680	-1 648	-32	-2
			ADP equipment	-794	-775	-836	61	8
			Telecommunications equipment	-942	-864	-913	49	6
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-942	-786	-532	-254	-32
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-642	-647	-768	121	19
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-579	-562	-733	171	30
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-9 130	-9 336	-9 198	-138	-1
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-156	-147	-157	10	7
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-155	-119	-162	43	36
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 304	-2 618	-2 274	-344	-13
			Parts for transport equipment	-934	-912	-979	67	7
			Parts for ADP equipment	-52	-58	-61	3	5
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 280	-1 250	-1 291	41	3
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-360	-373	-374	1	-
			Paper and paperboard	-202	-203	-200	-3	-1
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-128	-130	-128	-2	-2
			Iron and steel	-337	-448	-443	-5	-1
			Plastics	-331	-345	-341	-4	-1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 660	-2 582	-2 611	29	1
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-111	-30	-55	25	83
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-121	-121	-121	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-317	-343	-504	161	47
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $126m (2%) to $8,304m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $264m (3%) to $8,437m.

The main component contributing to this rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment up $192m (10%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $43m (1%) to $5,324m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $115m (2%) to $5,429m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s., up $171m (30%)
• industrial transport equipment, up $121m (19%)
• ADP equipment, up $61m (8%)
• telecommunications equipment, up $49m (6%).

Partly offsetting these rises was civil aircraft and other confidentialised items, down $254m (32%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $77m (1%) to $9,335m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $138m (1%) to $9,198m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, down $344m (13%).

Partly offsetting this fall were:

• parts for transport equipment, up $67m (7%)
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $43m (36%)
• other parts for capital goods, up $41m (3%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $23m (6%) to $407m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $161m (47%) to $504m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Jul 2015	Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Sep 2015	Sep 2015
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services debits			-6 082	-6 071	-6 177	106	2
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-35	-21	-38	17	81
	Transport		-1 445	-1 440	-1 469	29	2
		Passenger(c)	-533	-531	-528	-3	-1
		Freight	-845	-841	-872	31	4
		Other(b)	-62	-62	-64	2	3
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-5	-5	-6	1	20
	Travel		-2 413	-2 415	-2 452	37	2
	Other services		-2 189	-2 196	-2 219	23	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service debits(f)		-2 946	-2 946	-2 979	33	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $15m to $6,128m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $106m (2%) to $6,177m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $37m (2%)
• transport, up $29m (2%), with freight transport up $31m (4%)
• other services, up $23m (1%)
• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., up $17m (81%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of tourism related services debits rose $33m (1%) to $2,979m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 21% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis (a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Apr 2015	May 2015	Jun 2015	Jul 2015	Aug 2015	Sep 2015
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-8	12	5	1	-2	-2
	Unit value	-13	10	2	-13	6	5
Fines
	Quantity	-2	5	8	-6	5	4
	Unit value	-9	5	8	-7	-	6
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-21	16	14	-15	3	-6
	Unit value	-6	-10	-	3	p7	p9
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-18	17	5	-6	20	-8
	Unit value	-4	-6	-4	-	p3	p3
Thermal
	Quantity	-14	9	12	-4	9	-12
	Unit value	-6	-3	-	2	2	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between August and September 2015 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $26m (3%), with quantities down 2% and unit values up 5%. Exports to:

• Taiwan rose $42m (132%), with quantities up 105% and unit values up 13%
• Japan rose $22m (14%), with quantities up 18% and unit values down 3%
• Singapore rose $17m, following no exports in August 2015
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $52m (6%), with quantities down 13% and unit values up 7%.

Iron ore fines, up $332m (11%), with quantities up 4% and unit values up 6%. Exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $362m (14%), with quantities up 7% and unit values up 7%.

Hard coking coal, up $41m (3%), with quantities down 6% and unit values up 9%. Exports to:

• India rose $69m (20%), with quantities up 6% and unit values up 12%
• Poland rose $38m, following no exports in August 2015
• Sweden fell $58m (83%), with quantities down 84% and unit values up 5%.

Semi-soft coal, down $35m (5%), with quantities down 8% and unit values up 3%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $48m (41%), with quantities down 35% and unit values down 9%
• Taiwan fell $44m (61%), with quantities down 61%
• Brazil rose $24m (166%), with quantities up 146% and unit values up 8%
• India rose $20m (21%), with quantities up 8% and unit values up 12%.

Thermal coal, down $169m (11%), with quantities down 12% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $98m (14%), with quantities down 15% and unit values up 2%
• Taiwan fell $42m (30%), with quantities down 32% and unit values up 4%
• Chile fell $34m, with no exports in September 2015.