ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,156m in October 2011, a rise of $9m on the surplus in September 2011.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,595m in October 2011, a fall of $654m on the surplus in September 2011.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between September 2011 and October 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $169m (1%) to $27,573m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $49m to $27,320m. Non-monetary gold fell $197m (15%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $3m (60%). Rural goods rose $60m (2%) and non-rural goods rose $14m. Services credits rose $77m (2%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $39m (1%) to $3,044m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $60m (2%) to $3,078m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, up $39m (3%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $20m (3%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $150m (1%) to $19,149m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $14m to $19,025m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other mineral fuels, up $144m (7%)
• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $101m (11%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• other manufactures, down $84m (6%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $75m (2%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $66m (6%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section below.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (33%) to $4m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $3m (60%) to $2m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold remained steady at $1,318m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $197m (15%) to $1,106m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits fell $22m (1%) to $4,058m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $77m (2%) to $4,109m.

The components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport, up $28m (5%), with passenger transport up $29m (14%)
• travel, up $28m (1%)
• other services, up $23m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $57m (2%) to $2,645m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between September 2011 and October 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $159m (1%) to $25,416m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $605m (2%) to $25,725m. Non-monetary gold rose $334m (57%), intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $173m (2%), capital goods rose $60m (1%) and consumption goods rose $48m (1%). Services debits fell $10m.


Imports of goods



CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods remained steady at $5,425m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $48m (1%) to $5,424m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, up $120m (9%).

Partly offsetting this rise was the consumption goods n.e.s. component, down $69m (4%).


CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $93m (2%) to $5,342m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $60m (1%) to $5,411m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was telecommunications equipment, up $302m (58%), after falling $106m (17%) between August and September 2011.

Partly offsetting this rise was the civil aircraft and confidentialised items component, down $319m (48%), after rising $325m (96%) between August and September 2011.


INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $6m to $8,982m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $173m (2%) to $9,065m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $304m (11%) after falling $374m (12%) between August and September 2011.

Partly offsetting this rise was the organic and inorganic chemicals component, down $173m (34%), after rising $159m (46%) between August and September 2011.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $80m (12%) to $742m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold rose $334m (57%) to $922m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits fell $8m to $4,925m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $10m to $4,903m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was transport, down $15m (1%), with freight transport down $17m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $15m (1%) to $2,772m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Unit value and volume analysis: Recorded Trade Basis(a)
		Change in
		May 2011	Jun 2011	Jul 2011	Aug 2011	Sep 2011	Oct 2011
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Volumes	8	-3	-8	19	-3	2
	Unit value	4	-	-5	3	2	-8
Fines
	Volumes	8	-2	9	6	-2	7
	Unit value	3	-	-4	2	4	-8
Coal
Hard coking
	Volumes	10	4	-7	22	-8	-6
	Unit value	13	-1	-1	-	-	2
Semi-soft
	Volumes	-12	36	-29	23	12	-9
	Unit value	13	-3	-2	-1	-2	4
Bituminous (Thermal)
	Volumes	-2	19	-2	3	-6	4
	Unit value	3	4	1	4	-	6
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Data in this table are on a revised merchandise trade basis and exclude adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

On a recorded trade basis (noting the footnote in the above table), between September and October 2011, large value movements were recorded for the following selected commodities:

• Iron ore, lump fell $104m (6%) with volumes up 2% and prices down 8%. Exports to Republic of Korea fell $65m (39%), with volumes down 32% and prices down 11% and exports to China fell $23m (2%) with volumes up 8% and prices down 10%.
• Iron ore, fines fell $106m (2%) with volumes up 7% and prices down 8%. Exports to China fell $110m (3%), with volumes up 6% and prices down 9%.
• Hard coking coal fell $79m (4%) with volumes down 6% and prices up 2%. Export volumes rose for the two largest destinations, Japan (9%) and India (11%), but fell to China (19%). Unit values rose to all three destinations.
• Semi–soft coal fell $45m (5%) with volumes down 9% and prices up 4%. Exports to China fell $107m (50%), with volumes down 47% and prices down 6%, where exports to Japan rose $103m (35%) with volumes up 39% and prices down 3%.
• Bituminous (thermal) coal rose $137m (10%) with volumes up 4% and prices up 6%. Exports to Mexico rose $63m, driven by volumes and exports to China rose $47m (25%), with volumes up 23% and prices up 1%.

COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the financial year 2010-11. The charts include both trade in goods (on a recorded trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade i.e. combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows separately total exports and total imports, for the ten countries in the first chart.

Combining trade in goods (on a recorded trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade.

Goods imports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from individual countries and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2010-11, these restrictions represented 3% of the total imports value but the significance can vary by country. In table 14 of this publication, the 'no country details' data is included in 'other countries'.