ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services for October 2008 was a surplus of $1,858m, an increase of $425m (30%) on the revised surplus in September 2008.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in October 2008 was a surplus of $2,952m, an increase of $1,698m (135%) on the revised surplus in September 2008.

The Australian dollar depreciated against all major currencies between September and October 2008 (on a period average basis). The Australian dollar depreciated by 16% against the United States dollar over this period. About 80% of the value of goods exports for October 2008 were invoiced in United States dollars.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $832m (3%) between September and October to $26,828m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,763m (7%) to $28,141m. Non-rural goods rose $1,134m (6%), rural goods rose $296m (13%) and other goods rose $291m (19%). Services credits rose $44m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

The trend estimate of exports of rural goods rose $36m (2%) to $2,394m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, export of rural goods rose $296m (13%) to $2,593m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• other rural, up $109m (11%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $96m (15%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $75m (18%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $457m (20%) to $2,705m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $680m (4%) to $17,962m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,134m (6%) to $18,905m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, up $1,056m (20%) primarily on prices
• other mineral fuels, up $173m (10%) primarily on prices for gas.

Partly offsetting these increases was the metal ores and minerals component, down $255m (5%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,800m (10%) to $19,798m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, exports of other goods rose $81m (5%) to $1,667m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods rose $291m (19%) to $1,806m with non-monetary gold, up $212m (16%).

In original terms, exports of other goods rose $288m (19%) to $1,809m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $33m (1%) to $4,804m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $44m (1%) to $4,838m.

Components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel services, up $34m (1%)
• other services, up $15m (1%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the transportation services component, down $5m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $20m (1%) to $3,048m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate for goods and services debits rose $406m (2%) between September and October to $24,970m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $66m to $25,189m. Consumption goods rose $153m (3%), intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $117m (1%), while other goods fell $165m (13%) and capital goods fell $97m (2%). Services debits rose $56m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $40m (1%) to $5,152m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $153m (3%) to $5,261m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $74m (12%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., up $64m (4%)
• household electrical items, up $48m (12%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the non-industrial transport equipment component, down $40m (3%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $553m (10%) to $6,135m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $97m (2%) to $4,413m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $97m (2%) to $4,358m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft, down $327m (64%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $65m (8%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the ADP equipment component, up $175m (30%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $90m (2%) to $4,648m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $211m (2%) to $9,525m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $117m (1%) to $9,736m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $187m (6%)
• iron and steel, up $55m (9%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the other merchandise goods component, down $265m (72%).

In original terms, crude petroleum oils decreased $142m (8%) with volumes up 1% and prices down 9%, while refined petroleum oils increased $376m (28%) with volumes up 29%. Contributing to the increase in refined petroleum oils were:

• gasoline, up $413m
• diesel, up $96m.

Partly offsetting these increases was fuel oil, down $110m.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $488m (5%) to $10,378m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods rose $14m (1%) to $1,160m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of other goods fell $165m (13%) to $1,075m. The main component contributing to the fall was non-monetary gold, down $160m (16%).


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $46m (1%) to $4,721m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $56m (1%) to $4,757m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• transportation services, up $50m (3%)
• other services, up $5m
• travel services, up $2m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $27m (1%) to $2,334m.