ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,953m in November 2015, an increase of $172m (6%) on the deficit in October 2015.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,906m in November 2015, a decrease of $341m (11%) on the deficit in October 2015.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Nov 2015	Nov 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-2 063	-3 247	-2 906	341	11
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			27 651	26 604	26 764	160	1
		Total goods		21 997	20 964	21 087	123	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 730	3 622	4 176	554	15
			Non-rural goods(b)	16 726	15 934	15 720	-214	-1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	31	14	14	-	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 509	1 394	1 178	-216	-15
		Total services		5 655	5 641	5 676	35	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-29 714	-29 852	-29 670	-182	-1
		Total goods		-23 516	-23 694	-23 502	-192	-1
			Consumption goods	-8 351	-8 035	-8 098	63	1
			Capital goods	-5 492	-5 738	-5 805	67	1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 164	-9 486	-9 321	-165	-2
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-508	-435	-278	-157	-36
		Total services		-6 198	-6 158	-6 167	9	-
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				-2 718	-2 781	-2 953	-172	-6
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 810	26 866	26 829	-37	-
		Total goods		21 196	21 204	21 133	-71	-
			Rural goods(b)	3 670	3 642	3 613	-29	-1
			Non-rural goods(b)	16 090	16 122	16 096	-26	-
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	25	21	18	-3	-14
			Non-monetary gold	1 412	1 419	1 406	-13	-1
		Total services		5 614	5 662	5 696	34	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-29 529	-29 647	-29 782	135	-
		Total goods		-23 365	-23 478	-23 609	131	1
			Consumption goods	-8 116	-8 154	-8 181	27	-
			Capital goods	-5 529	-5 651	-5 788	137	2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 330	-9 281	-9 256	-25	-
			Non-monetary gold	-391	-393	-385	-8	-2
		Total services		-6 164	-6 169	-6 173	4	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between October and November 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $37m to $26,829m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $160m (1%) to $26,764m. Rural goods rose $554m (15%). Non-monetary gold fell $216m (15%) and non-rural goods fell $214m (1%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $14m. Services credits rose $35m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Nov 2015	Nov 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				21 997	20 964	21 087	123	1
	General merchandise			20 457	19 556	19 895	339	2
		Rural goods		3 730	3 622	4 176	554	15
			Meat and meat preparations	1 119	1 048	1 018	-30	-3
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	753	683	687	4	1
			Wool and sheepskins	281	254	249	-5	-2
			Other rural(a)	1 577	1 638	2 222	584	36
		Non-rural goods		16 726	15 934	15 720	-214	-1
			Metal ores and minerals	6 510	6 022	6 002	-20	-
			Coal, coke and briquettes(b)	3 052	2 987	2 942	-45	-2
			Other mineral fuels(c)	2 026	2 046	2 128	82	4
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	1 107	908	885	-23	-3
			Machinery	878	895	899	4	-
			Transport equipment	455	473	443	-30	-6
			Other manufactures	1 569	1 502	1 456	-46	-3
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	1 004	980	846	-134	-14
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	126	121	119	-2	-2
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(d)			31	14	14	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(d)			1 509	1 394	1 178	-216	-15
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $29m (1%) to $3,613m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $554m (15%) to $4,176m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was other rural, up $584m (36%). In original terms on a merchandise trade basis, exports of vegetables and fruit (SITC 05) rose $356m (146%) and oil seeds and oleaginous fruits (SITC 22) rose $104m (103%) in November 2015.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $26m to $16,096m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $214m (1%) to $15,720m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), down $134m (14%)
• other manufactures, down $46m (3%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $45m (2%).

Partly offsetting these falls was other mineral fuels, up $82m (4%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $3m (14%) to $18m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $14m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $13m (1%) to $1,406m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $216m (15%) to $1,178m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Nov 2015	Nov 2015
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services credits			5 655	5 641	5 676	35	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		1	1	1	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		4	5	5	-	-
	Transport		593	591	593	2	-
		Passenger(b)	251	248	252	4	2
		Freight(c)	23	24	24	-	-
		Other	217	221	221	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	103	98	96	-2	-2
	Travel		3 338	3 376	3 401	25	1
	Other services		1 718	1 668	1 676	8	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service credits(e)		3 589	3 624	3 653	29	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, service credits rose $34m (1%) to $5,696m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $35m (1%) to $5,676m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $25m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $29m (1%) to $3,653m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 21% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between October and November 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $135m to $29,782m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $182m (1%) to $29,670m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $165m (2%) and non-monetary gold fell $157m (36%). Capital goods rose $67m (1%) and consumption goods rose $63m (1%). Services debits rose $9m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Nov 2015	Nov 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-23 516	-23 694	-23 502	-192	-1
	General merchandise			-23 008	-23 259	-23 224	-35	-
		Consumption goods		-8 351	-8 035	-8 098	63	1
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 167	-1 164	-1 174	10	1
			Household electrical items	-510	-507	-493	-14	-3
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-2 076	-1 805	-1 915	110	6
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 456	-1 455	-1 454	-1	-
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-556	-536	-523	-13	-2
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 586	-2 569	-2 538	-31	-1
		Capital goods		-5 492	-5 738	-5 805	67	1
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 657	-2 187	-1 840	-347	-16
			ADP equipment	-858	-867	-991	124	14
			Telecommunications equipment	-906	-926	-906	-20	-2
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-532	-473	-715	242	51
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-772	-1 014	-790	-224	-22
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-767	-271	-563	292	108
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-9 164	-9 486	-9 321	-165	-2
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-157	-156	-143	-13	-8
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-164	-181	-145	-36	-20
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 212	-2 238	-2 390	152	7
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 002	-1 064	-1 108	44	4
			Parts for ADP equipment	-62	-58	-61	3	5
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 290	-1 290	-1 331	41	3
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-375	-348	-371	23	7
			Paper and paperboard	-201	-213	-209	-4	-2
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-126	-129	-126	-3	-2
			Iron and steel	-430	-416	-288	-128	-31
			Plastics	-341	-339	-337	-2	-1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 635	-2 906	-2 674	-232	-8
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-56	-35	-24	-11	-31
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-114	-114	-114	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-508	-435	-278	-157	-36
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $27m to $8,181m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $63m (1%) to $8,098m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, up $110m (6%).

Partly offsetting this rise was consumption goods n.e.s., down $31m (1%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $137m (2%) to $5,788m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $67m (1%) to $5,805m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s, up $292m (108%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $242m (51%)
• ADP equipment, up $124m (14%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, down $347m (16%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $224m (22%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $25m to $9,256m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $165m (2%) to $9,321m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $232m (8%)
• iron and steel, down $128m (31%).

Partly offsetting these falls was fuels and lubricants, up $152m (7%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $8m (2%) to $385m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $157m (36%) to $278m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Nov 2015	Nov 2015
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services debits			-6 198	-6 158	-6 167	9	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-38	-42	-27	-15	-36
	Transport		-1 497	-1 494	-1 497	3	-
		Passenger(c)	-571	-573	-588	15	3
		Freight	-846	-839	-827	-12	-1
		Other(b)	-69	-72	-72	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-10	-10	-9	-1	-10
	Travel		-2 502	-2 522	-2 544	22	1
	Other services		-2 162	-2 099	-2 099	-	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service debits(f)		-3 073	-3 095	-3 133	38	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $4m to $6,173m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $9m to $6,167m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $22m (1%).

Partly offsetting this rise was maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $15m (36%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $38m (1%) to $3,133m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 21% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Jun 2015	Jul 2015	Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Nov 2015
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	5	-	-2	-3	11	-10
	Unit value	2	-13	6	4	-7	-9
Fines
	Quantity	8	-6	5	4	-7	-
	Unit value	8	-7	1	5	-5	-8
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	15	-16	4	-4	-5	4
	Unit value	-	4	1	2	p9	p-2
Semi-soft
	Quantity	5	-6	21	-8	3	-3
	Unit value	-4	-	-1	-1	p3	p2
Thermal
	Quantity	12	-4	8	-13	5	-4
	Unit value	-	1	2	1	-3	-
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	np	np	4	-12	17	2
	Unit value	np	np	3	6	-4	-9
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between October and November 2015 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $192m (17%), with quantities down 10% and unit values down 9%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $81m (11%), with quantities down 3% and unit values down 8%
• Japan fell $46m (23%), with quantities down 16% and unit values down 8%
• the Republic of Korea fell $40m (56%), with quantities down 55% and unit values down 3%.

Iron ore fines, down $245m (8%), with unit values down 8%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $87m (30%), with quantities down 29% and unit values down 2%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $78m (3%), with quantities up 6% and unit values down 9%
• the Republic of Korea fell $52m (21%), with quantities down 13% and unit values down 10%.

Hard coking coal, up $26m (2%), with quantities up 4% and unit values down 2%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $61m (25%), with quantities up 24% and unit values up 1%
• India fell $36m (11%), with quantities down 7% and unit values down 5%.

Semi-soft coal, down $8m (1%), with quantities down 3% and unit values up 2%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea fell $56m (31%), with quantities down 33% and unit values up 3%
• Japan rose $13m (8%), with quantities up 5% and unit values up 3%
• Brazil rose $12m (84%), with quantities up 73% and unit values up 7%.

Thermal coal, down $56m (4%), with quantities down 4%. Exports to:

• Taiwan fell $68m (42%), with quantities down 48% and unit values up 12%
• Japan fell $54m (8%), with quantities down 12% and unit values up 4%
• the Republic of Korea rose $61m (30%), with quantities up 29% and unit values up 1%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), down $108m (7%), with quantities up 2% and unit values down 9%.