ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,611m in May 2015, an increase of $318m (14%) on the deficit in April 2015.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,751m in May 2015, a decrease of $1,385m (33%) on the deficit in April 2015.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY (a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Mar 2015	Apr 2015	May 2015	May 2015	May 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-1 537	-4 136	-2 751	1 385	33
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 955	25 322	25 528	206	1
		Total goods		21 558	19 886	20 077	191	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 786	3 736	3 900	164	4
			Non-rural goods(b)	16 332	15 019	15 332	313	2
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	35	32	32	-	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 405	1 099	813	-286	-26
		Total services		5 397	5 436	5 452	16	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-28 491	-29 458	-28 279	-1 179	-4
		Total goods		-22 394	-23 446	-22 328	-1 118	-5
			Consumption goods	-7 221	-7 552	-7 524	-28	-
			Capital goods	-5 550	-6 038	-4 973	-1 065	-18
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 247	-9 571	-9 458	-113	-1
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-376	-285	-374	89	31
		Total services		-6 097	-6 012	-5 951	-61	-1
Trend (d)
BALANCE on goods and services				-1 921	-2 293	-2 611	-318	-14
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 596	26 215	25 848	-367	-1
		Total goods		21 202	20 791	20 398	-393	-2
			Rural goods(b)	3 786	3 848	3 884	36	1
			Non-rural goods(b)	16 164	15 747	15 377	-370	-2
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	35	33	32	-1	-3
			Non-monetary gold	1 217	1 162	1 105	-57	-5
		Total services		5 394	5 424	5 449	25	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-28 517	-28 508	-28 459	-49	-
		Total goods		-22 538	-22 504	-22 444	-60	-
			Consumption goods	-7 397	-7 468	-7 521	53	1
			Capital goods	-5 395	-5 232	-5 070	-162	-3
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 414	-9 459	-9 496	37	-
			Non-monetary gold	-332	-345	-357	12	3
		Total services		-5 979	-6 004	-6 015	11	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between April and May 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $367m (1%) to $25,848m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $206m (1%) to $25,528m. Non-rural goods rose $313m (2%) and rural goods rose $164m (4%). Non-monetary gold fell $286m (26%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $32m. Services credits rose $16m.


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Mar 2015	Apr 2015	May 2015	May 2015	May 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				21 558	19 886	20 077	191	1
	General merchandise			20 118	18 755	19 232	477	3
		Rural goods		3 786	3 736	3 900	164	4
			Meat and meat preparations	1 165	1 129	1 170	41	4
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	828	847	822	-25	-3
			Wool and sheepskins	255	260	348	88	34
			Other rural(a)	1 538	1 500	1 560	60	4
		Non-rural goods		16 332	15 019	15 332	313	2
			Metal ores and minerals	6 087	5 461	5 780	319	6
			Coal, coke and briquettes(b)	3 862	2 909	3 177	268	9
			Other mineral fuels(c)	1 777	1 886	1 568	-318	-17
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	836	773	901	128	17
			Machinery	846	863	826	-37	-4
			Transport equipment	477	496	477	-19	-4
			Other manufactures	1 409	1 434	1 456	22	2
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	912	1 065	1 018	-47	-4
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	125	131	129	-2	-2
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(d)			35	32	32	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(d)			1 405	1 099	813	-286	-26
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in other non-rural.
(b) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $36m (1%) to $3,884m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $164m (4%) to $3,900m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• wool and sheepskins, up $88m (34%)
• other rural, up $60m (4%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $370m (2%) to $15,377m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $313m (2%) to $15,332m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $319m (6%), incorporating an increase in iron ore prices
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $268m (9%), with volumes recovering somewhat following weather related port closures in April 2015
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $128m (17%).

Partly offsetting these rises was other mineral fuels, down $318m (17%). In original terms, on an international merchandise trade basis, this was driven by gas, natural and manufactures (SITC 34), down $375m (31%), a result of power outages causing disruption to production.

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (3%) to $32m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $32m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $57m (5%) to $1,105m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $286m (26%) to $813m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Mar 2015	Apr 2015	May 2015	May 2015	May 2015
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			5 397	5 436	5 452	16	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		1	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		4	5	5	-	-
	Transport		576	586	580	-6	-1
		Passenger(b)	219	222	220	-2	-1
		Freight(c)	19	18	18	-	-
		Other	230	232	230	-2	-1
		Postal and courier services(d)	107	114	113	-1	-1
	Travel		3 213	3 230	3 248	18	1
	Other services		1 603	1 614	1 618	4	-
Memorandum item: Tourism related service credits(e)			3 432	3 452	3 468	16	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, service credits rose $25m to $5,449m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $16m to $5,452m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $18m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $16m to $3,468m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 21% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between April and May 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $49m to $28,459m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $1,179m (4%) to $28,279m. Capital goods fell $1,065m (18%), intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $113m (1%) and consumption goods fell $28m. Non-monetary gold rose $89m (31%). Services debits fell $61m (1%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS (a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Mar 2015	Apr 2015	May 2015	May 2015	May 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-22 394	-23 446	-22 328	-1 118	-5
	General merchandise			-22 018	-23 161	-21 954	-1 207	-5
		Consumption goods		-7 221	-7 552	-7 524	-28	-
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 131	-1 094	-1 155	61	6
			Household electrical items	-453	-456	-461	5	1
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 551	-1 852	-1 853	1	-
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 319	-1 249	-1 260	11	1
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-479	-477	-465	-12	-3
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 287	-2 423	-2 331	-92	-4
		Capital goods		-5 550	-6 038	-4 973	-1 065	-18
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 773	-2 996	-1 629	-1 367	-46
			ADP equipment	-868	-872	-835	-37	-4
			Telecommunications equipment	-923	-929	-800	-129	-14
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-644	-301	-369	68	23
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-634	-773	-782	9	1
			Capital goods n.e.s.	-707	-167	-558	391	234
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-9 247	-9 571	-9 458	-113	-1
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-139	-148	-149	1	1
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-180	-145	-169	24	17
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 326	-2 680	-2 515	-165	-6
			Parts for transport equipment	-916	-917	-915	-2	-
			Parts for ADP equipment	-60	-60	-54	-6	-10
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 357	-1 317	-1 404	87	7
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-360	-369	-349	-20	-5
			Paper and paperboard	-192	-202	-201	-1	-
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-116	-118	-118	-	-
			Iron and steel	-445	-508	-522	14	3
			Plastics	-309	-324	-320	-4	-1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 701	-2 649	-2 602	-47	-2
			Other merchandise goods(b)(d)(e)	-37	-27	-32	5	19
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-110	-107	-107	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-376	-285	-374	89	31
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $53m (1%) to $7,521m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $28m to $7,524m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was consumption goods n.e.s., down $92m (4%).

Partly offsetting this fall was food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $61m (6%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $162m (3%) to $5,070m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $1,065m (18%) to $4,973m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, down $1,367m (46%), returning to normal levels
• telecommunications equipment, down $129m (14%).

Partly offsetting these falls was capital goods n.e.s., up $391m (234%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $37m to $9,496m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $113m (1%) to $9,458m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, down $165m (6%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $47m (2%).

Partly offsetting these falls was other parts for capital goods, up $87m (7%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $12m (3%) to $357m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $89m (31%) to $374m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS (a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Mar 2015	Apr 2015	May 2015	May 2015	May 2015
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-6 097	-6 012	-5 951	-61	-1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-96	-12	-29	17	142
	Transport		-1 457	-1 455	-1 422	-33	-2
		Passenger(c)	-533	-526	-515	-11	-2
		Freight	-859	-858	-836	-22	-3
		Other(b)	-59	-64	-64	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-6	-8	-7	-1	-13
	Travel		-2 426	-2 472	-2 415	-57	-2
	Other services(e)		-2 118	-2 073	-2 085	12	1
Memorandum item: Tourism related service debits(f)			-2 959	-2 997	-2 930	-67	-2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, imports of services debits rose $11m to $6,015m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of services debits fell $61m (1%) to $5,951m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $57m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of tourism related services debits fell $67m (2%) to $2,930m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 21% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis (a) - Original terms
		Change in:
		Dec 2014	Jan 2015	Feb 2015	Mar 2015	Apr 2015	May 2015
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	20	-12	-7	16	-6	11
	Unit value	5	-3	4	-11	-15	4
Fines
	Quantity	9	-9	-1	2	-3	5
	Unit value	-	-	-2	-9	-10	3
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-11	-1	-14	32	-22	16
	Unit value	5	3	2	-	p2	p-2
Semi-soft
	Quantity	33	-17	-21	24	-18	19
	Unit value	6	3	2	3	-3	p-2
Thermal
	Quantity	13	-13	-7	9	-15	9
	Unit value	5	-3	6	1	-6	-2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (Customs and Border Protection). At the time of initial reporting to Customs and Border Protection, the final prices at which transactions take place are not known for iron ore and coal. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Customs and Border Protection. For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Customs and Border Protection. When additional information on quantity and/or unit price for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Iron ore adjustments are applied on an international merchandise trade basis at the Australian Harmonized Export Commodity Classification (AHECC) level. Negative adjustments of $20m, $20m, $30m and $45m have been applied to iron ore lump in February, March, April and May 2015 respectively. Negative adjustments of $20m, $65m, $60m and $240m have been applied to iron ore fines in February, March, April and May 2015 respectively. When actual final transaction prices become available estimates are replaced with these data.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Customs and Border Protection and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between April and May 2015 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $142m (16%), with quantities up 11% and unit values up 4%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $82m (13%), with quantities up 5% and unit values up 7%
• Taiwan rose $37m (100%), with quantities up 71% and unit values up 17%
• Japan rose $20m (15%), with quantities up 22% and unit values down 6%.

Iron ore fines, up $197m (8%), with quantities up 5% and unit values up 3%. Exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $209m (10%), with quantities up 6% and unit values up 4%.

Hard coking coal, up $176m (14%), with quantities up 16% and unit values down 2%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $126m (48%), with quantities up 50% and unit values down 1%
• India rose $43m (15%), with quantities up 21% and unit values down 5%.

Semi-soft coal, up $86m (17%), with quantities up 19% and unit values down 2%. Exports to:

• India rose $43m (61%), with quantities up 49% and unit values up 8%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $35m (62%), with quantities up 70% and unit values down 5%.

Thermal coal, up $87m (7%), with quantities up 9% and unit values down 2%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea rose $96m (72%), with quantities up 65% and unit values up 5%
• Japan rose $66m (14%), with quantities up 17% and unit values down 2%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $58m (22%), with quantities down 16% and unit values down 8%.

COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the calendar year 2014. The charts include both trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade, i.e., combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows total exports and total imports for each of these countries.

Combining trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some components will be excluded (e.g. merchanting credits and goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others component, will be double counted. These components are unlikely to impact on the broader analysis.

Exports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are now being excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown in the time series spreadsheet table 14a. In 2014, these restrictions represented 2.19% of the total exports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

Imports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2014, these restrictions represented 2.69% of the total imports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

For further details about these restrictions see paragraphs 26 to 28 of the Explanatory Notes.