ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $5,874m in March 2019, an increase of $676m on the surplus in February 2019.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $4,949m in March 2019, a decrease of $191m on the surplus in February 2019.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2019 was a surplus of $14,742m, an increase of $5,768m on the surplus of $8,974m for the three months to December 2018. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary March quarter 2019 surplus was $14,151m, an increase of $5,561m on the December quarter 2018 surplus of $8,590m.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Jan 2019	Feb 2019	Mar 2019	Mar 2019	Mar 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				4 653	5 140	4 949	-191	-4
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			39 813	40 043	39 340	-703	-2
		Total goods		31 831	31 866	31 182	-684	-2
			Rural goods(b)	4 144	4 070	4 199	129	3
			Non-rural goods(b)	25 514	25 768	25 579	-189	-1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	10	10	11	1	10
			Non-monetary gold(c)	2 163	2 019	1 393	-626	-31
		Total services		7 981	8 176	8 158	-18	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-35 159	-34 903	-34 391	-512	-1
		Total goods		-26 908	-26 447	-26 025	-422	-2
			Consumption goods	-8 856	-8 904	-8 610	-294	-3
			Capital goods	-6 616	-6 498	-6 154	-344	-5
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 983	-10 614	-10 811	197	2
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-453	-430	-450	20	5
		Total services		-8 251	-8 456	-8 366	-90	-1
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				4 471	5 198	5 874	676	13
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			39 419	39 988	40 504	516	1
		Total goods		31 364	31 893	32 371	478	1
			Rural goods(b)	4 030	4 088	4 153	65	2
			Non-rural goods(b)	25 710	26 123	26 468	345	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	15	13	11	-2	-15
			Non-monetary gold	1 609	1 669	1 740	71	4
		Total services		8 055	8 095	8 133	38	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-34 948	-34 790	-34 630	-160	-
		Total goods		-26 552	-26 387	-26 224	-163	-1
			Consumption goods	-8 703	-8 718	-8 728	10	-
			Capital goods	-6 436	-6 374	-6 339	-35	-1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 977	-10 841	-10 691	-150	-1
			Non-monetary gold	-435	-454	-466	12	3
		Total services		-8 397	-8 403	-8 406	3	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February and March 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $516m (1%) to $40,504m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $703m (2%) to $39,340m. Non-monetary gold fell $626m (31%) and non-rural goods fell $189m (1%). Rural goods rose $129m (3%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (10%). Services credits fell $18m.


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Jan 2019	Feb 2019	Mar 2019	Mar 2019	Mar 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				31 831	31 866	31 182	-684	-2
	General merchandise			29 658	29 837	29 778	-59	-
		Rural goods		4 144	4 070	4 199	129	3
			Meat and meat preparations	1 248	1 262	1 364	102	8
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	557	523	496	-27	-5
			Wool and sheepskins	367	342	369	27	8
			Other rural(a)	1 972	1 943	1 970	27	1
		Non-rural goods		25 514	25 768	25 579	-189	-1
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	8 651	9 687	8 509	-1 178	-12
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	6 016	5 241	6 068	827	16
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	5 326	5 472	5 408	-64	-1
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	1 181	1 157	1 181	24	2
			Machinery	939	945	995	50	5
			Transport equipment	465	344	425	81	24
			Other manufactures	1 918	1 962	2 044	82	4
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	882	812	799	-13	-2
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	136	146	150	4	3
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			10	10	11	1	10
	Non-monetary gold(e)			2 163	2 019	1 393	-626	-31
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $65m (2%) to $4,153m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $129m (3%) to $4,199m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was meat and meat preparations, up $102m (8%).


NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $345m (1%) to $26,468m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $189m (1%) to $25,579m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was metal ores and minerals, down $1,178m (12%).

Partly offsetting this fall were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, up $827m (16%)
• other manufactures, up $82m (4%)
• transport equipment, up $81m (24%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING


In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (15%) to $11m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (10%) to $11m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $71m (4%) to $1,740m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $626m (31%) to $1,393m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Jan 2019	Feb 2019	Mar 2019	Mar 2019	Mar 2019
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			7 981	8 176	8 158	-18	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		1	10	4	-6	-60
	Transport		608	613	612	-1	-
		Passenger(b)	239	242	241	-1	-
		Freight(c)	22	22	23	1	5
		Other	240	239	240	1	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	107	110	108	-2	-2
	Travel		5 202	5 368	5 353	-15	-
	Other services		2 170	2 186	2 190	4	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		5 440	5 609	5 593	-16	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $38m to $8,133m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $18m to $8,158m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $15m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $16m to $5,593m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 21% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February and March 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $160m to $34,630m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $512m (1%) to $34,391m. Capital goods fell $344m (5%) and consumption goods fell $294m (3%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $197m (2%) and non-monetary gold rose $20m (5%). Services debits fell $90m (1%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Jan 2019	Feb 2019	Mar 2019	Mar 2019	Mar 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-26 908	-26 447	-26 025	-422	-2
	General merchandise			-26 455	-26 017	-25 575	-442	-2
		Consumption goods		-8 856	-8 904	-8 610	-294	-3
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 389	-1 362	-1 349	-13	-1
			Household electrical items	-549	-529	-544	15	3
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 907	-2 285	-1 932	-353	-15
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 498	-1 494	-1 453	-41	-3
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-543	-497	-515	18	4
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 970	-2 737	-2 818	81	3
		Capital goods		-6 616	-6 498	-6 154	-344	-5
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-2 164	-2 320	-2 094	-226	-10
			ADP equipment	-1 035	-807	-908	101	13
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 099	-1 046	-1 132	86	8
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-390	-314	-355	41	13
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-1 355	-1 380	-1 016	-364	-26
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-574	-631	-648	17	3
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-10 983	-10 614	-10 811	197	2
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-168	-174	-170	-4	-2
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-153	-214	-190	-24	-11
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 186	-2 911	-3 252	341	12
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 143	-1 117	-1 091	-26	-2
			Parts for ADP equipment	-57	-60	-57	-3	-5
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 585	-1 557	-1 587	30	2
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-291	-299	-276	-23	-8
			Paper and paperboard	-211	-205	-202	-3	-1
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-133	-121	-120	-1	-1
			Iron and steel	-326	-316	-278	-38	-12
			Plastics	-389	-378	-374	-4	-1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-3 134	-3 094	-3 055	-39	-1
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-76	-37	-27	-10	-27
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-132	-132	-133	1	1
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-453	-430	-450	20	5
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $10m to $8,728m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $294m (3%) to $8,610m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, down $353m (15%).

Partly offsetting this fall was consumption goods n.e.s., up $81m (3%).


CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $35m (1%) to $6,339m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $344m (5%) to $6,154m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $364m (26%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, down $226m (10%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• ADP equipment, up $101m (13%)
• telecommunications equipment, up $86m (8%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $150m (1%) to $10,691m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $197m (2%) to $10,811m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $341m (12%).

Partly offsetting this rise were:

• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $39m (1%)
• iron and steel, down $38m (12%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $12m (3%) to $466m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $20m (5%) to $450m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Jan 2019	Feb 2019	Mar 2019	Mar 2019	Mar 2019
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-8 251	-8 456	-8 366	-90	-1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-61	-61	-82	21	34
	Transport		-1 535	-1 554	-1 543	-11	-1
		Passenger(c)	-618	-635	-630	-5	-1
		Freight	-838	-840	-835	-5	-1
		Other(b)	-72	-72	-71	-1	-1
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-7	-7	-7	-	-
	Travel		-4 093	-4 262	-4 141	-121	-3
	Other services		-2 561	-2 579	-2 600	21	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 712	-4 897	-4 771	-126	-3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $3m to $8,406m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $90m (1%) to $8,366m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $121m (3%).

Partly offsetting this fall were:

• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., up $21m (34%)
• other services, up $21m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $126m (3%) to $4,771m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 24% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in:
		Oct 2018	Nov 2018	Dec 2018	Jan 2019	Feb 2019	Mar 2019
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	1	-6	18	-17	2	-12
	Unit value	4	-	-2	10	9	-1
Fines
	Quantity	-4	-4	16	-16	5	-14
	Unit value	6	-	-3	9	12	1
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	3	-4	-5	7	-30	58
	Unit value	8	5	p1	p-3	p-6	p -
Semi-soft
	Quantity	3	17	-	-9	-18	21
	Unit value	2	-2	1	p1	p-1	p-3
Thermal
	Quantity	12	-21	32	-8	-18	9
	Unit value	2	-5	-2	3	-4	p-1
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	10	2	1	-5	-9	12
	Unit value	1	-	1	4	-	-3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between February and March 2019 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $240m (13%), with quantities down 12% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $212m (14%), with quantities down 13% and unit values down 2%
• the Republic of Korea fell $29m (42%), with quantities down 41% and unit values down 1%.

Iron ore fines, down $592m (13%), with quantities down 14% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $426m (11%), with quantities down 11%
• the Republic of Korea fell $97m (38%), with quantities down 42% and unit values up 7%
• Taiwan fell $51m (64%), with quantities down 66% and unit values up 6%.

Hard coking coal, up $1,066m (58%), with quantities up 58%. Exports to:

• India rose $245m (54%), with quantities up 48% and unit values up 3%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $193m (40%), with quantities up 42% and unit values down 2%
• the Republic of Korea rose $176m, with unit values down 1%
• Japan rose $117m (43%), with quantities up 47% and unit values down 3%
• Netherlands rose $106m, with unit values up 4%.

Semi-soft coal, up $142m (18%), with quantities up 21% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $54m (83%), with quantities up 82%
• Vietnam rose $54m, with unit values up 10%
• the Republic of Korea rose $41m (23%), with quantities up 37% and unit values down 10%.

Thermal coal, up $132m (7%), with quantities up 9% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea rose $102m (42%), with quantities up 55% and unit values down 8%
• Japan rose $67m (8%), with quantities up 10% and unit values down 2%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $52m (17%), with quantities down 18% and unit values up 1%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $356m (9%), with quantities up 12% and unit values down 3%.