ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $288m in June 2009, a turnaround of $430m on a revised surplus in May 2009.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $441m in June 2009, a decrease of $296m (40%) on a revised deficit in May 2009.

The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to June 2009 was a deficit of $1,458m, a turnaround of $5,305m on the surplus of $3,847m for the three months to March 2009. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the June quarter 2009 deficit was $1,667m, a turnaround of $5,934m on the revised March quarter 2009 surplus of $4,267m.


2008-09 SITUATION

For 2008-09, the balance of goods and services was a surplus of $5.8b. This is a turnaround of $29.4b on the 2007-08 deficit resulting from a $51.8b (22%) increase in exports offset by a $22.5b (9%) increase in imports of goods and services.

Exports of non-rural and other goods were up $45.0b (29%) and rural goods were up $3.9b (15%) compared to 2007-08.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May 2009 and June 2009 the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $640m (3%) to $20,446m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $310m (2%) to $20,397m. Other goods rose $156m (13%), non-rural goods rose $135m (1%) and rural goods rose $22m (1%). Services credits fell $3m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $46m (2%) to $2,411m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, export of rural goods rose $22m (1%) to $2,366m.

The main component that contributed to the increase in the seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $87m (15%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $230m (9%) to $2,240m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $457m (4%) to $11,984m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $135m (1%) to $12,065m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other mineral fuels, up $75m (6%)
• transport equipment, up $54m (25%)
• metals (excl. gold), up $48m (6%)
• machinery, up $37m (6%).

Partly offsetting these increases were:

• metal ores and minerals, down $71m (2%)
• other non-rural, down $31m (3%).

An adjustment has been made to the value of the metal ores and minerals component for June 2009, for details see Commodity prices adjustment.

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $179m (1%) to $11,789m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, exports of other goods fell $161m (10%) to $1,423m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, other goods rose $156m (13%) to $1,333m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-monetary gold, up $164m (17%).

In original terms, exports of other goods rose $156m (13%) to $1,332m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $24m (1%) to $4,628m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $3m to $4,633m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was transportation services, down $10m (2%).

This was partly offset by the other services component, up $9m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $8m to $3,022m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May 2009 and June 2009 the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $211m (1%) to $20,734m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $13m to $20,838m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $247m (4%), consumption goods rose $207m (4%), capital goods rose $35m (1%) while other goods fell $502m (48%). Services debits rose $27m (1%).

Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes decreased about 1.9% during the June quarter 2009 and the implicit price deflator fell 7.2%. In original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index fell about 6.1% while the implicit price deflator fell 7.6%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the June quarter 2009 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $41m (1%) to $5,086m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $207m (4%) to $5,222m.

The main component contributing to the increase in the seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, up $220m (26%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $388m (9%) to $4,931m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $82m (2%) to $3,669m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $35m (1%) to $3,665m.

The main component contributing to the increase in the seasonally adjusted estimates was machinery and industrial equipment, up $129m (10%).

Partly offsetting this increase was the capital goods n.e.s. component, down $118m (12%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $270m (8%) to $3,762m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $58m (1%) to $6,653m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $247m (4%) to $6,843m.

The main component contributing to the increase in the seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $234m (13%).

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $338m (5%) to $6,653m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods fell $118m (13%) to $805m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits fell $502m (48%) to $546m. The components contributing to this decrease were non-monetary gold, down $336m (45%) and goods for processing, down $170m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $8m to $4,522m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $27m (1%) to $4,563m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• other services, up $11m (1%)
• transportation services, up $9m (1%)
• travel services, up $6m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $13m (1%) to $2,367m.