ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,198m in July 2009, an increase of $511m (74%) on a revised deficit in June 2009.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,556m in July 2009, an increase of $1,018m on a revised deficit in June 2009.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between June 2009 and July 2009 the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $548m (3%) to $19,808m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $283m (1%) to $20,041m. Other goods fell $292m (22%) and rural goods fell $85m (4%) while non-rural goods rose $135m (1%). Services credits fell $40m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $58m (2%) to $2,294m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $85m (4%) to $2,252m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $104m (17%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $112m (5%) to $2,128m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $310m (3%) to $11,781m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $135m (1%) to $12,169m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $172m (5%)
• other mineral fuels, up $33m (2%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the metals (excl. gold) component, down $91m (11%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $531m (5%) to $12,320m.

An adjustment has been made to the value of the metal ores and minerals component for July 2009, for details see Commodity prices adjustment.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, exports of other goods fell $194m (15%) to $1,116m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, other goods fell $292m (22%) to $1,043m.

The only component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-monetary gold, down $309m (27%).

In original terms, exports of other goods fell $293m (22%) to $1,039m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $13m to $4,617m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $40m (1%) to $4,578m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other services, down $24m (2%)
• travel services, down $17m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $21m (1%) to $2,988m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between June 2009 and July 2009 the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $36m to $21,007m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $736m (4%) to $21,598m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $455m (7%), capital goods rose $186m (5%) and consumption goods rose $119m (2%) while other goods fell $82m (15%). Services debits rose $58m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $88m (2%) to $5,259m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $119m (2%) to $5,339m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, up $49m (5%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., up $37m (2%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $24m (3%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $483m (10%) to $5,414m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $29m (1%) to $3,712m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $186m (5%) to $3,871m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $103m (30%)
• ADP equipment, up $71m (12%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $80m (2%) to $3,842m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $58m (1%) to $6,921m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $455m (7%) to $7,296m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $414m (21%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $82m (5%).

In original terms the rise in the fuels and lubricants component was driven by crude petroleum, up $328m (31%) with volumes up 20% and prices up 9% and refined petroleum products, up $56m (7%) with volumes up 9% and prices down 2%.

Partly offsetting these increases were:

• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., down $49m (39%)
• organic and inorganic chemicals, down $38m (10%).

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $689m (10%) to $7,342m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods fell $182m (26%) to $526m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits fell $82m (15%) to $464m. The main component contributing to this decrease was non-monetary gold, down $89m (22%).


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $27m (1%) to $4,588m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $58m (1%) to $4,628m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other services, up $46m (3%)
• travel services, up $15m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $11m to $2,376m.