ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,364m in January 2016, an increase of $133m (4%) on the deficit in December 2015.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,937m in January 2016, a decrease of $587m (17%) on the deficit in December 2015.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Nov 2015	Dec 2015	Jan 2016	Jan 2016	Jan 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-2 801	-3 524	-2 937	587	17
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 445	25 283	25 549	266	1
		Total goods		20 708	19 437	19 706	269	1
			Rural goods(b)	4 215	3 811	3 772	-39	-1
			Non-rural goods(b)	15 306	14 318	14 502	184	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	14	14	12	-2	-14
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 173	1 294	1 420	126	10
		Total services		5 737	5 846	5 844	-2	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-29 246	-28 807	-28 487	-320	-1
		Total goods		-23 051	-22 513	-22 220	-293	-1
			Consumption goods	-8 023	-7 949	-7 868	-81	-1
			Capital goods	-5 445	-5 312	-5 229	-83	-2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 305	-8 866	-8 774	-92	-1
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-278	-386	-349	-37	-10
		Total services		-6 195	-6 294	-6 266	-28	-
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				-3 113	-3 231	-3 364	-133	-4
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 146	25 819	25 500	-319	-1
		Total goods		20 391	20 018	19 667	-351	-2
			Rural goods(b)	3 703	3 718	3 736	18	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	15 314	14 958	14 629	-329	-2
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	17	13	11	-2	-15
			Non-monetary gold	1 358	1 329	1 291	-38	-3
		Total services		5 755	5 801	5 834	33	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-29 259	-29 050	-28 864	-186	-1
		Total goods		-23 026	-22 795	-22 589	-206	-1
			Consumption goods	-8 037	-7 992	-7 943	-49	-1
			Capital goods	-5 532	-5 452	-5 333	-119	-2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 072	-8 979	-8 953	-26	-
			Non-monetary gold	-384	-372	-360	-12	-3
		Total services		-6 234	-6 255	-6 275	20	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between December 2015 and January 2016, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $319m (1%) to $25,500m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $266m (1%) to $25,549m. Non-rural goods rose $184m (1%) and non-monetary gold rose $126m (10%). Rural goods fell $39m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (14%). Services credits fell $2m.


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Nov 2015	Dec 2015	Jan 2016	Jan 2016	Jan 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				20 708	19 437	19 706	269	1
	General merchandise			19 521	18 129	18 274	145	1
		Rural goods		4 215	3 811	3 772	-39	-1
			Meat and meat preparations	1 011	1 043	1 041	-2	-
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	696	789	706	-83	-11
			Wool and sheepskins	252	279	279	-	-
			Other rural(a)	2 256	1 699	1 746	47	3
		Non-rural goods		15 306	14 318	14 502	184	1
			Metal ores and minerals	5 757	4 915	4 818	-97	-2
			Coal, coke and briquettes(b)	2 886	2 663	2 804	141	5
			Other mineral fuels(c)	2 141	2 014	2 109	95	5
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	876	946	788	-158	-17
			Machinery	898	884	928	44	5
			Transport equipment	430	421	422	1	-
			Other manufactures	1 430	1 495	1 721	226	15
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	768	857	794	-63	-7
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	119	122	119	-3	-2
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(d)			14	14	12	-2	-14
	Non-monetary gold(d)			1 173	1 294	1 420	126	10
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $18m to $3,736m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $39m (1%) to $3,772m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $83m (11%).

Partly offsetting this fall was other rural, up $47m (3%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $329m (2%) to $14,629m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $184m (1%) to $14,502m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other manufactures, up $226m (15%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $141m (5%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $158m (17%)
• metal ores and minerals, down $97m (2%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (15%) to $11m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (14%) to $12m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $38m (3%) to $1,291m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $126m (10%) to $1,420m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Nov 2015	Dec 2015	Jan 2016	Jan 2016	Jan 2016
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services credits			5 737	5 846	5 844	-2	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	2	2	na
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		8	7	8	1	14
	Transport		594	596	598	2	-
		Passenger(b)	252	255	251	-4	-2
		Freight(c)	24	23	24	1	4
		Other	222	223	227	4	2
		Postal and courier services(d)	96	96	96	-	-
	Travel		3 452	3 540	3 491	-49	-1
	Other services		1 684	1 703	1 745	42	2
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service credits(e)		3 704	3 794	3 742	-52	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
na not available
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, service credits rose $33m (1%) to $5,834m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $2m to $5,844m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $49m (1%).

Partly offsetting this fall was other services, up $42m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits fell $52m (1%) to $3,742m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 23% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between December 2015 and January 2016, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $186m (1%) to $28,864m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $320m (1%) to $28,487m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $92m (1%), capital goods fell $83m (2%), consumption goods fell $81m (1%) and non-monetary gold fell $37m (10%). Services debits fell $28m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Nov 2015	Dec 2015	Jan 2016	Jan 2016	Jan 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-23 051	-22 513	-22 220	-293	-1
	General merchandise			-22 773	-22 127	-21 871	-256	-1
		Consumption goods		-8 023	-7 949	-7 868	-81	-1
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 165	-1 139	-1 137	-2	-
			Household electrical items	-491	-499	-483	-16	-3
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 900	-1 848	-1 887	39	2
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 427	-1 400	-1 377	-23	-2
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-516	-506	-510	4	1
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 523	-2 557	-2 474	-83	-3
		Capital goods		-5 445	-5 312	-5 229	-83	-2
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 636	-1 851	-2 473	622	34
			ADP equipment	-981	-758	-769	11	1
			Telecommunications equipment	-893	-897	-883	-14	-2
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-715	-296	-189	-107	-36
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-802	-880	-823	-57	-6
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-417	-631	-92	-539	-85
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-9 305	-8 866	-8 774	-92	-1
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-144	-155	-148	-7	-5
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-142	-149	-163	14	9
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 380	-2 136	-1 944	-192	-9
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 112	-1 013	-1 060	47	5
			Parts for ADP equipment	-61	-59	-60	1	2
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 323	-1 229	-1 208	-21	-2
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-373	-372	-382	10	3
			Paper and paperboard	-209	-215	-210	-5	-2
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-125	-121	-122	1	1
			Iron and steel	-295	-289	-255	-34	-12
			Plastics	-338	-334	-347	13	4
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 665	-2 647	-2 731	84	3
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-24	-32	-31	-1	-3
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-114	-113	-113	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-278	-386	-349	-37	-10
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $49m (1%) to $7,943m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $81m (1%) to $7,868m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was consumption goods n.e.s., down $83m (3%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $119m (2%) to $5,333m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $83m (2%) to $5,229m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s., down $539m (85%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $107m (36%).

Partly offsetting these falls was machinery and industrial equipment, up $622m (34%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $26m to $8,953m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $92m (1%) to $8,774m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, down $192m (9%).

Partly offsetting this fall were:

• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $84m (3%)
• parts for transport equipment, up $47m (5%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $12m (3%) to $360m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $37m (10%) to $349m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Nov 2015	Dec 2015	Jan 2016	Jan 2016	Jan 2016
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services debits			-6 195	-6 294	-6 266	-28	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-27	-62	-37	-25	-40
	Transport		-1 565	-1 574	-1 527	-47	-3
		Passenger(c)	-578	-580	-590	10	2
		Freight	-827	-832	-854	22	3
		Other(b)	-151	-151	-73	-78	-52
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-9	-10	-11	1	10
	Travel		-2 496	-2 528	-2 560	32	1
	Other services		-2 107	-2 130	-2 143	13	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service debits(f)		-3 074	-3 108	-3 150	42	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $20m to $6,275m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $28m to $6,266m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport, down $47m (3%)
• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $25m (40%).

Partly offsetting these falls was travel, up $32m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of tourism related services debits rose $42m (1%) to $3,150m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 22% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Dec 2015	Jan 2016
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-2	-3	11	-9	4	-16
	Unit value	7	5	-9	-12	-14	6
Fines
	Quantity	5	4	-7	-	4	-14
	Unit value	2	5	-5	-10	-13	6
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	4	-3	-4	4	-6	4
	Unit value	-	-	p-6	p17	p-	p1
Semi-soft
	Quantity	21	-8	3	-3	-	1
	Unit value	-1	-1	p-1	p3	p-3	p2
Thermal
	Quantity	8	-13	5	-4	9	-10
	Unit value	2	1	-4	-3	-3	2
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	4	-12	17	4	5	-2
	Unit value	3	7	-5	-8	-	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between December 2015 and January 2016 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $81m (10%), with quantities down 16% and unit values up 6%. Exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $96m (17%), with quantities down 23% and unit values up 9%.

Iron ore fines, down $229m (9%), with quantities down 14% and unit values up 6%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $176m (9%), with quantities down 15% and unit values up 7%
• the Republic of Korea fell $55m (28%), with quantities down 24% and unit values down 5%.

Hard coking coal, up $53m (4%), with quantities up 4% and unit values up 1%. Exports to Turkey rose $55m.

Semi-soft coal, up $22m (4%), with quantities up 1% and unit values up 2%. Exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $48m (66%), with quantities up 74% and unit values down 4%.

Thermal coal, down $117m (9%), with quantities down 10% and unit values up 2%. Exports to Japan fell $104m (15%), with quantities down 15%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), down $18m (1%), with quantities down 2% and unit values up 1%.