ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,885m in February 2009, an increase of $122m on a revised surplus in January 2009.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,109m in February 2009, an increase of $1,183m on a revised surplus in January 2009.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $430m (2%) between January 2009 and February 2009 to $24,687m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,049m (4%) to $24,933m. Other goods rose $816m (49%), rural goods rose $150m (6%) and non-rural goods rose $58m. Services credits rose $25m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $25m (1%) to $2,583m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $150m (6%) to $2,617m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $66m (12%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $62m (10%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $394m (18%) to $2,580m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $618m (4%) to $15,489m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $58m to $15,212m.

The components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $127m (3%)
• machinery, up $87m (12%)
• other manufactures, up $33m (2%).

Partly offsetting these increases were:

• transport equipment, down $81m (18%)
• other mineral fuels, down $76m (4%)
• other non-rural, down $23m (3%).

After falling by $953m (18%) the previous month, the coal, coke and briquettes component fell by $1m.

In original terms, metal ores and minerals was up $247m (6%) with uranium up $141m driven by both volumes and prices and copper ore up $98m (68%), with volumes up 45% and prices up 16%. Non-agglomerated iron ore decreased $127m (4%) with volumes down 12% and prices up 9%.

Volumes of high rank coal rose 14% while volumes of semi-soft coking coal fell 33% and non-metallurgical coal fell 19%.

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $151m (1%) to $13,948m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, exports of other goods rose $124m (7%) to $1,993m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, other goods rose $816m (49%) to $2,469m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-monetary gold, up $784m (55%).

In original terms, exports of other goods rose $815m (50%) to $2,459m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $38m (1%) to $4,621m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $25m (1%) to $4,635m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were travel services, up $22m (1%) and other services up $6m, while transportation services fell $3m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $22m (1%) to $2,972m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $552m (2%) between January 2009 and February 2009 to $22,802m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $134m (1%) to $22,824m. Consumption goods fell $691m (13%), intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $342m (5%), while other goods rose $619m (43%) and capital goods rose $318m (7%). Services debits fell $39m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $111m (2%) to $4,970m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $691m (13%) to $4,465m.

All components contributed to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• non-industrial transport equipment, down $227m (22%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., down $143m (8%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $106m (14%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $796m (16%) to $4,048m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $112m (3%) to $4,129m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $318m (7%) to $4,775m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s. (which includes civil aircraft and confidential commodities), up $417m (35%)
• telecommunications equipment, up $30m (5%).

Partly offsetting these increases were:

• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $72m (14%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, down $50m (3%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $104m (3%) to $4,153m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $401m (5%) to $7,568m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $342m (5%) to $7,145m.

The main components contributing to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other parts for capital goods, down $101m (8%)
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s. down $98m (49%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was fuels and lubricants, up $42m (2%).

In original terms, crude petroleum increased $194m (27%), with volumes up 11% and prices up 15%. Refined petroleum, increased $21m (3%) with prices up 3%.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $667m (9%) to $6,703m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods rose $110m (7%) to $1,694m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits rose $619m (43%) to $2,042m.

The main component contributing to this increase was non-monetary gold, up $782m (79%) while goods for processing decreased $177m (85%).


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits fell $39m (1%) to $4,440m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $39m (1%) to $4,396m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was transportation services, down $59m (5%) with freight transportation services down $74m (10%), partly offset by passenger services, up $16m (3%). Other services was up $21m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $16m (1%) to $2,008m.