MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during July 2013 (527,900 movements) increased 0.2% when compared with June 2013 (526,600 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3.8% higher than in July 2012.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during July 2013. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for July 2012 and July 2013 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (17.9%) followed by Hong Kong (9.9%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Japan (9.6%), followed by Malaysia (0.3%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - July 2013
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Jun 13 to Jul 13	Jul 12 to Jul 13
Source countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	98.6	102.3	116.6	-0.1	-
China	64.0	62.4	72.5	0.9	17.9
United States of America	39.5	40.0	41.0	-1.2	1.0
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	51.0	54.4	37.3	1.6	5.5
Japan	26.7	27.4	29.0	0.1	-9.6
Singapore	31.0	30.1	27.2	1.1	3.7
Malaysia	22.1	22.3	18.8	0.6	-0.3
Hong Kong	16.0	15.6	17.6	1.7	9.9
South Korea	16.1	15.4	15.4	0.1	1.8
Indonesia	12.0	11.8	12.5	1.1	1.4
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:

1 The August 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.4% higher than July 2013.
2 The August 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.4% lower than July 2013.

The figure of 2.4% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during July 2013 (737,100 movements) increased 0.7% when compared with June 2013 (731,800 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 7.8% higher than in July 2012.

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in July 2013. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for July 2012 and July 2013 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for the United Kingdom (21.9%), followed by Italy (17.0%). No percentage decreases were recorded.

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - July 2013
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Jun 13 to Jul 13	Jul 12 to Jul 13
Source countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	100.9	99.7	93.4	0.9	10.5
Indonesia	76.8	76.1	85.9	-	2.0
United States of America	80.4	78.8	70.9	1.0	12.3
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	47.1	47.4	61.9	2.0	21.9
Thailand	54.1	54.4	58.2	0.7	2.8
Singapore	28.9	29.2	31.9	-0.2	11.3
Fiji	29.8	27.8	31.5	1.2	5.9
Malaysia	23.4	23.8	25.4	0.9	4.4
China	32.6	32.4	24.3	-1.2	3.2
Italy	15.0	14.9	19.2	3.3	17.0
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:

1 The August 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than July 2013.
2 The August 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than July 2013.

The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 11,770 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during July 2013, a increase of 0.3% compared with July 2012 (11,740 movements). People born in China accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (13.0%), followed by people born in India (12.6%), New Zealand (11.5%) and Iraq (7.5%).

There were 8,030 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during July 2013, which increased 6.3% when compared with July 2012 (7,550 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.