3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Apr 2017 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 13/06/2017   
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MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during April 2017 (727,600 movements) increased 0.8% when compared with March 2017 (722,200 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 7.7% higher than in April 2016.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Short-Term Visitor Arrivals, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during April 2017. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for April 2016 and April 2017 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Hong Kong (16.2%), followed by the United States of America (14.3%) and India (10.6%). No percentage decreases were recorded for this comparison.



Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - April 2017

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Mar '17 to Apr '17
Apr '16 to Apr '17
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
112.3
110.2
116.2
0.0
2.2
China
106.7
107.8
100.7
0.1
7.5
United States of America
65.8
70.3
64.3
2.1
14.3
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
62.9
64.1
57.5
0.7
7.3
Singapore
37.7
38.2
34.2
2.0
0.3
Hong Kong
23.2
26.6
33.4
2.1
16.2
Malaysia
33.8
35.3
30.9
1.7
7.7
India
23.2
23.4
25.5
0.4
10.6
Korea, South
24.3
25.2
23.5
0.1
3.8
Japan
36.4
35.4
23.0
0.2
4.8

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The May 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than April 2017.
      2 The May 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than April 2017.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STVA Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during April 2017 (833,000 movements) increased 0.1% when compared with March 2017 (832,500 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 1.9% higher than in April 2016.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Short-Term Resident Departures, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in April 2017. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for April 2016 and April 2017 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Japan (14.0%), followed by Singapore (10.3%), and New Zealand (6.1%).The highest percentage decreases were recorded for Indonesia (-11.0%), followed by Fiji (-5.0) and Hong Kong (-2.9).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - April 2017

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Mar '17 to Apr '17
Apr '16 to Apr '17
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
113.9
114.6
117.2
0.3
6.1
United States of America
88.8
92.9
98.0
0.4
1.6
Indonesia
96.1
98.6
94.4
-0.4
-11.0
Thailand
44.5
45.4
55.1
0.9
-2.0
China
39.1
40.5
48.0
-0.3
4.9
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
50.7
50.0
44.9
-0.6
3.9
Japan
33.8
35.8
43.3
1.9
14.0
Singapore
34.0
33.3
34.4
0.0
10.3
Fiji
26.4
28.1
26.9
-2.3
-5.0
Hong Kong
18.1
18.9
24.0
0.4
-2.9

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The May 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than April 2017.
      2 The May 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than April 2017.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STRD Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.