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The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during September 2014. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for September 2013 and September 2014 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (24.7%) followed by Malaysia (17.4%). There were no percentage decreases recorded.
'What if'....? Future scenarios
The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
2 The October 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than September 2014.
The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during September 2014 (763,600 movements) increased 0.1% when compared with August 2014 (762,900 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 3.2% higher than in September 2013.
The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in September 2014. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for September 2013 and September 2014 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Indonesia (17.7%), followed by Italy (8.3%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Thailand (16.1%), followed by Fiji (4.5%).
'What if'....? Future scenarios
The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
2 The October 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than September 2014.
PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS
Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the year 2011, there were over 14 million multiple movements accounting for 46% of all movements (see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.
There were 10,450 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during September 2014, a decrease of 14.3% compared with September 2013 (12,200 movements). People born in India accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (14.9%), followed by people born in China (13.3%), New Zealand (10.8%) and the United Kingdom (8.2%).
There were 5,940 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during September 2014, a decrease of 6.8% compared with September 2013 (6,380 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas.
The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.
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