MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during March 2013 (529,100 movements) increased 0.1% when compared with February 2013 (528,700 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 5.0% higher than in March 2012.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during March 2013. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for March 2012 and March 2013 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (15.2%) followed by Singapore (14.4%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Japan (5.9%), followed by Korea (4.5%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - March 2013
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Feb 13 to Mar 13	Mar 12 to Mar 13
Source countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	103.5	101.5	99.1	-	2.1
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	48.6	48.7	71.3	-0.5	-1.0
China	58.1	61.6	62.9	1.5	15.2
United States of America	42.8	43.1	50.0	0.2	8.6
Japan	27.7	27.4	36.1	-1.1	-5.9
Singapore	30.0	30.7	32.0	0.8	14.4
Malaysia	21.8	22.3	22.4	-1.6	5.0
Hong Kong	15.2	15.2	21.1	0.2	1.9
Korea(c)	15.8	16.0	16.1	-1.4	-4.5
Germany	13.3	13.2	16.0	-0.2	5.4
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:

1 The April 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.4% higher than March 2013.
2 The April 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.4% lower than March 2013.

The figure of 2.4% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during March 2013 (686,700 movements) increased 0.2% when compared with February 2013 (694,900 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 3.5% higher than in March 2012.

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in March 2013. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for March 2012 and March 2013 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Singapore (20.1%), followed by China (8.2%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Fiji (10.7%), followed by Hong Kong (8.8%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - March 2013
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Feb 13 to Mar13	Mar 12 to Mar 13
Source countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	96.1	96.3	109.4	0.7	7.2
United States of America	73.8	75.0	71.9	0.3	6.5
Indonesia	74.3	73.3	69.4	-0.5	-3.6
Thailand	52.3	53.6	53.4	-0.1	1.7
China	34.5	35.8	39.2	2.0	8.2
Singapore	27.9	30.3	31.7	0.7	20.1
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	40.2	40.5	31.5	-1.1	-3.2
Malaysia	22.3	22.7	24.4	1.4	6.8
Fiji	24.5	25.2	23.9	-1.8	-10.7
Hong Kong	17.8	18.3	23.6	-0.7	-8.8
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:

1 The April 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than March 2013.
2 The April 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than March 2013.

The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 14,090 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during March 2013, a decrease of 4.0% compared with March 2012 (14,670 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (17.6%), followed by people born in China (13.7%), India (12.9%) and the UK, CIs and IOM (6.0%).

There were 7,740 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during March 2013, which increased 9.4% when compared with March 2012 (7,070 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.